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Tom Miller

The mainland would overtake Germany this year  as the world's biggest exporter of goods,  Germany's economy minister said on Monday.
The news, which comes despite forecasts that the expected global slowdown would shave about 5 percentage points off mainland export growth this year, confirms the country's status as a superpower of global trade.
'We're still the world's biggest exporter, although China will surpass us this year,' Michael Glos said in Berlin.
German exports to the world  totalled US$1.417 trillion last year, compared  with the mainland's US$1.218 trillion. But with mainland exports predicted to grow 18 per cent to US$1.453 trillion by the end of this year, according to a forecast by Deutsche Bank, the mainland is expected to leapfrog Europe's export powerhouse to the top spot.
The mainland only surpassed the United States as the world's second-largest exporter last year after exports surged by more than 20 per cent for six years in a row.
However, analysts said the stellar figures hid substantial weaknesses in the country's export machine.
About half of the mainland's exports by value come from low-end processing and assembly, with few domestic players capable of competing internationally at the high end.
'The numbers are less interesting than they look at face value. Foreign manufacturers account for more than half of China's export value, with that figure rising to 85 to 90 per cent for high value goods,' said Arthur Kroeber, director of Beijing-based consultancy Dragonomics.
'The figures show that China is a key hub in the globalised production chain. But China's export numbers are very different from those of Germany or Japan, where domestic firms account for the vast majority of exports,' he explained.
The mainland economy was widely expected to overtake Germany's as the world's third-largest last year,  but the rising value of the euro against the yuan saw gross domestic product fall short of Europe's largest economy.
But with GDP forecast to grow  9 to 10 per cent and the yuan expected to strengthen against the euro this year, the mainland economy should finally  overtake Germany to take up third spot behind Japan.
'We are probably only five years from China surpassing Japan to become the biggest economy in Asia. This will be a much more significant shift in power than China overtaking Germany, which will not change the balance of power between China and Europe,' said Mr Kroeber.



Mainland to trump Germany as world's biggest exporter this year