At some point today or tomorrow, China is expected to announce its trade numbers for March. Most analysts are predicting an impressive rebound from February's lacklustre performance, with exports up by about 33 per cent year on year last month, compared with an increase of just 6.5 per cent for February.
The apparent vigour of the recovery will be largely illusory. The forecast rise in March's exports has a lot to do with the distorting effects of the mainland's Lunar New Year holiday, coupled with February's severe winter weather.
Behind the headline number, the expected rise in exports masks growing concerns about the health of the mainland's exporters, who are being assailed by rising costs on one side and by softening international demand on the other.
The impact is being felt especially keenly on the Pearl River Delta. Over the last year, manufacturers in the region have suffered a series of hard knocks. Firstly, the cost of their raw materials has risen. In February, China's producer price index - a measure of wholesale inflation - was up 6.6 per cent over the previous 12 months, compared with just 2.6 per cent in February last year.
It isn't only raw materials that are getting more expensive. The combination of the mainland's new labour law, increases in minimum wages and a shortage of skilled workers has pushed labour costs sharply higher. Average wages rose 19 per cent last year, outstripping productivity increases in some sectors.
On top of that, tax rebates for exporters have been cut, while the yuan has appreciated against the US dollar, squeezing margins on exports to America (see chart).