As the global credit crisis has unfolded, few forecasters have been closer to the mark than New York University economics professor Nouriel Roubini.
In July last year, when United States Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson was still insisting the subprime fallout had been contained, Professor Roubini, who also heads his own research firm RGE Monitor, warned the bursting of the US housing bubble would lead to a severe credit contraction. Within weeks the crunch had begun to bite, leading to the collapse of British mortgage lender Northern Rock in September.
Then in February this year, Professor Roubini published a paper in which he warned of a 'financial meltdown' in which 'one or two large and systemically important broker dealers' could go bust. One month later, Bear Stearns imploded.
So the audience was all ears yesterday when a select group of Hong Kong's investment community gathered in the Mandarin Hotel to listen to the professor's predictions for the US economy.
They weren't pleasant. Although the immediate risk of a financial system meltdown may have been averted by the rescue of Bear Stearns, Professor Roubini warned that anyone now heaving a sigh of relief is dangerously complacent.