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Economic headaches for leaders in Vietnam

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On the streets of Hanoi, gold shops are running out of the precious metal and kerbside money traders are running out of dollars. Ordinary Vietnamese have embarked on a great flight to safety amid ongoing fears about inflation (up 25 per cent year on year in May) and the future of the currency, the dong. In related moves, Vietnam's overcooked stock markets and property sectors have both plummeted.

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Once, the unease would have largely been limited to Vietnam. Now, as the country steadily integrates, the region is awash with rumours. One, particularly hot in Hong Kong and South Korea this week, suggests that the dong may be set for an overnight devaluation of 30 per cent.

Another claims any such drop will spark a 1997-style contagion across the region, just as the collapse of the Thai baht sent neighbouring currencies tumbling.

Amid the clamour, however, more sober voices are urging caution. One is the UN Development Programme's senior economist in Vietnam, Jonathan Pincus. While noting that the situation poses economic, political and social questions for Vietnam's Communist Party, Mr Pincus is wary of the rumours.

First, Hanoi's habitually cautious leaders are unlikely to spring such a devaluation shock on their own system. Second, the fundamentals in Vietnam and across East Asia are a long way from the credit-fuelled excesses of the late Asian boom period.

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Vietnam, for example, has little short-term foreign debt and the fact that the dong is not convertible still largely insulates it from large-scale speculative attack. Then there is the fact that the world is awash with money looking for new places to settle - and Vietnam still retains long-term lustre as an emerging market.

'It must always be remembered that this is a stabilisation issue, not a crisis,' Mr Pincus said.

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