The Anson factor looms larger than ever
On the face of it, Anson Chan Fang On-sang is only one of 60 legislators. The fact that the question of whether she will run in the next Legislative Council election has hit the headlines does, however, say something about her unique role in Hong Kong politics.
That is certainly something she will take into account when finding her own answer to the question. She said last Thursday that it was a more difficult decision to make than the one last year. She was telling the truth.
Put simply, it could be argued that she had no alternative but to enter the ring to contest the Hong Kong Island seat left vacant by the death of Ma Lik, the former chairman of the Democratic Alliance for the Betterment and Progress of Hong Kong.
As Regina Ip Lau Suk-yee had indicated she would run, Mrs Chan was rightly seen by the pan-democratic camp and its supporters as the best candidate to frustrate the former security chief's political comeback.
At a time when the democratic movement was at a low point, democrats held out high hopes that Mrs Chan's entry into elective politics would provide fresh impetus to the campaign for universal suffrage.
Democrats faced a political conundrum after a decision by the National People's Congress Standing Committee on universal suffrage in late 2006. While ruling out universal suffrage - and drastic changes to the electoral methods for the chief executive and legislature - in 2012, the Standing Committee said that universal suffrage could be introduced by 2017 (for the chief executive election) and 2020 (for all members of Legco).
With a long-awaited timetable for universal suffrage seemingly on the drawing board, democrats were confronted with the enormous difficulty of keeping the momentum going for 2012.
The fact that Mrs Chan practised what she preached by seeking her mandate through the ballot box personalised the meaning and significance of democratic elections.
Circumstances have changed. Unlike last year's by-election, when she flew the pan-democratic camp banner, Mrs Chan would only be one of the candidates from the democratic force if she were to join the fray in September. A degree of competition is inevitable. Meanwhile, Mrs Ip looks certain to win a seat in her second attempt, under the proportional representation system.
Since taking her seat in Legco in December, Mrs Chan must now have a better idea of the depth of lawmakers' feelings of frustration and disillusionment about their limited say in the political process.
Taken together, the disincentives for running again are obvious - and cannot be dismissed lightly.
The incentives for her to run again are equally clear and compelling, nevertheless. Her candidature will significantly boost the chances of the pan-democrats winning four of the six seats in Hong Kong Island.
True, her re-election bid may not magically lift the democratic movement to new heights. But the mood of the democratic camp and its supporters will be dampened if she decides to retire from frontline politics.
It will be even more demoralising if Mrs Chan's decision is seen as a sign of being resigned to the reality of the constraints facing elected legislators in shaping policies. Such feelings of futility will create more gloom in the political atmosphere, creating a cycle of cynicism and indifference towards politics in Hong Kong.
In her post-election victory speech in December, Mrs Chan said she had entered the by-election with a deep commitment to the democratic process.
Expectations were high that she would run again in September. If she decides otherwise, she will have to convince her supporters that she remains passionate and committed to promoting democracy and good governance from outside Legco.
