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Probability Theory

Prebble will give top pick Whyte run for his money

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Why you can trust SCMP
Alan Aitken

Jockey Challenge odds makers have declared tonight's Happy Valley meeting a match between the usual suspects in Brett Prebble and Douglas Whyte. But punters on the favourite might have a nervous wait to see if they collect, and slow and steady may win the race.

Whyte was set up as 2.2 favourite last night in opening markets and Prebble his danger at 2.7, with 10.0 the next line for Alex Lai Hoi-wing. It would be difficult to argue with that structure, considering the overall strength of their rides.

Early shoppers jumped straight in, forcing Whyte's odds into 2.0 soon after betting opened, and the South African opens strongly with Daylight Express and Triumph for Dennis Yip Chor-hong in the first two races, Magic King in the third, Capability (race four) and Amazing Fortune (race five). All have excellent winning chances and the Durban Demon may come into the final three events having established good scores. And if you're taking the 2.2 odds, you'll be wanting that to be the case because the run home is not going to be as easy.

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Whyte finishes the night with three rides for David Ferraris on Chater Silk, Good To Go and Disguise, and while it is possible to make a case for the first two in particular, they will need everything to go right.

Meanwhile, Prebble has only one outright favourite in Thunder Valley in the second race, which looks an open affair just the same.

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But the Australian jockey's rides look to have good chances to score points and there is the possibility he could wear down his arch-rival's lead in the final stages and win the series for the third meeting in a row.

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