As the likelihood of an American attack on Iran recedes with the fading of the Bush presidency, Israel is coming to grips with the possibility of having to attack Iran's nuclear facilities on its own, if at all.
An Israeli defence expert on Iran's nuclear programme said in a talk last year that Israel had the military means to interdict the Iranian development programme 'for a few years' even though the facilities were widely dispersed and despite the great distance Israeli warplanes would have to traverse.
'It wouldn't be hard,' he said. Although some of the sites are deep underground, he noted that in the Israeli attack on Iraq's nuclear reactor in 1981, the bombs had not only destroyed the domed structure above ground but the reactor core which lay under 11 metres of concrete. Since then, he noted, the effectiveness of bunker-buster bombs had increased.
In an air exercise of unusual scope last month, more than 100 Israeli warplanes flew eastward over the Mediterranean more than 1,400km. If they had flown in the opposite direction, they would have reached Iran's uranium enrichment facility at Natanz.
Prior to the Iraqi raid in 1981, the eight planes taking part in that operation conducted numerous such exercises to hone their ability to keep formation while flying near ground level for a long distance and maintaining radio silence, this in addition to making repeated simulated bombing runs. Those planes barely made it back from Iraq without refuelling after the actual attack, but an attack on Iran would almost certainly require refuelling, both because of the longer distance and the likelihood of spending more time over target.
Israel had informed the Americans of that Iraq raid only after the planes returned to base. This time, Jerusalem would clearly need Mr Bush's permission beforehand because of the likely impact on the US and on the world economy of an Israeli strike.