'When you start to think about China's 'home-field bump', that's when you start to lose sleep.' United States Olympic Committee performance chief Steve Roush is understandably worried. For the first time since the 1992 Barcelona Olympics, the US is in danger of finishing second in both gold and overall medal counts.
This time it's not the Russians, but the home nation that has taken unprecedented steps - and attached extraordinary importance - to becoming top dog. 'Overall, we're not a big sporting nation . . . The United States and Russia are still well above our level,' said Deputy Sports Minister Cui Dalin, presumably struggling to keep a straight face.
Mainland sports authorities have pumped millions of yuan into the system and the results are starting to show. Power bases such as diving remain, emerging ones including weightlifting have been consolidated, and new ones such as rowing have been created.
This publication, the first of our Olympic specials, identifies and ranks 50 of the elite athletes of this system. All can win gold - the closer they get to the business end, the more likely it is they will.
It's not an exact science, but there are clear indicators of medal potential: previous Olympic performances, records in major championships, world rankings, strength of competition, and sometimes just simple momentum.
Some big names - and sports - are missing. Basketball fans might wonder why Yao Ming and company are absent. The simple truth is that against the likes of the US, Spain and Argentina, China will do well to make the quarter-finals. There's a similar lack of progress in swimming. Breaststroke queen Luo Xuejuan has retired and the best medal prospect is 200m butterfly specialist Wu Peng. His problem is American machine Michael Phelps.
There are two major questions: How many gold medals will China win, and will it be enough to beat the US?
