With 14 tickets of candidates vying for just eight seats in New Territories West, it appears that at least two of the 10 incumbent lawmakers seeking re-election in the crowded constituency will miss out next month.
The largest geographical constituency has once again become the largest Legislative Council battlefield, with 42 candidates vying for seats. Among them are two incumbents looking to switch from functional to geographical constituency seats: labour sector legislator Wong Kwok-hing from the Beijing-loyalist camp, and social welfare sector legislator Fernando Cheung Chiu-hung of the pan-democrats.
Their candidacies could dilute support within their own camps and pose a threat to incumbent allies. Mr Wong is running under a Federation of Trade Unions banner despite also being a member of the Democratic Alliance for the Betterment and Progress of Hong Kong. Unlike in 2004, when the two groups shared a slate, the union is seeking to differentiate itself from the DAB's ticket this year.
In the pan-democratic camp, the Civic Party is launching its maiden Legco campaign, with Dr Cheung leading a ticket of three. The Democratic Party, which holds two seats in the constituency, is fielding a third ticket led by its secretary general, Cheung Yin-tung in a move aimed at giving second-tier members a shot.
Three independent lists have also entered the contest, each attempting to carve out a niche in a political space now occupied by three pro-government figures and five pan-democrats. But in Neighbourhood and Worker's Service Centre incumbent Leung Yiu-chung's words: 'It is difficult for the pan-democratic camp to win additional seats, but it is difficult for it to lose seats too.'
According to the results of the latest survey by the University of Hong Kong's public opinion programme, a poll of 320 New Territories West voters taken between Friday and Tuesday revealed that all the incumbents were likely to be re-elected. But the League of Social Democrats' Albert Chan Wai-yip and the DAB's Cheung Hok-ming, who is standing as the second candidate on the ticket led by party chairman Tam Yiu-chung, were in a close race with Mr Wong.
Mr Chan said he could face a tough fight in light of the results of the 2004 poll, when he won 7.8 per cent of the vote - just enough to secure the eighth seat. He hopes to benefit from a rift between the DAB and the Heung Yee Kuk that emerged after villagers offered to support him.
