Beijing unlikely to try to poach Taiwan allies
As ties improve across the Taiwan Strait, observers say dramatic switches in diplomatic ties from Taiwan to the mainland during the Olympics are unlikely - but it is possible that the consensus of cordiality could be disrupted at the last minute.
Meanwhile, Pope Benedict sent China his best wishes for a successful Olympics on Sunday, saying he hoped the Games would 'offer the international community a valid example of coexistence among people of different backgrounds in the respect of mutual dignity'.
The Vatican and 22 other sovereign states recognise Taiwan, instead of Beijing, as the legitimate seat of the government of China.
As Beijing has gradually added ties in the international community, the number of Taiwan's diplomatic allies has dwindled from 68 in the early 1970s to 23 today - most of them small countries in Central and South America, Africa and the Pacific.
Pro-independence politicians warn that Beijing might use the Games as an opportunity to win over some of Taiwan's allies, but cross-strait analysts say recent developments suggest the Beijing Olympics should be calm on at least that front.
No heads of state - or even deputy heads of state - of any of Taiwan's allies will be attending today's opening of the Games, the island's Foreign Ministry announced late last month.
Beijing has invited leaders of all countries participating in the Olympics to attend the ceremony, and some of Taiwan's allies have sent officials - but only their sports ministers or Olympic committee chairmen.
'Our allies stressed that their sports officials attending the opening ceremony will not hurt their ties with Taiwan,' said Ko Shen-yeaw, director of the Taiwanese Foreign Ministry's Department of Central and South American Affairs.
None of the African countries aligned with Taiwan sent their leaders to Beijing for the Sino-Africa Summit in 2006.
'Their absence from the opening ceremony is not only a result of Taiwan's persuasion, but also a lack of active persuasion on Beijing's behalf,' Soochow University political science professor Hsu Yung-ming said. 'There is now a cross-strait atmosphere not to touch these diplomatic ties.'
But Professor Hsu also cautioned that the atmosphere was fragile and subject to continuous challenges. Tensions could rise, for example, if the mainland press 'slipped' and addressed the Taiwanese delegation as 'China's Taipei' instead of 'Chinese Taipei', or if Taiwanese President Ma Ying-jeou failed to keep a low profile on his forthcoming overseas trip.
On Tuesday, Mr Ma will embark on his first foreign trip since taking office, to attend the inaugurations of the presidents of Paraguay and the Dominican Republic, making transit stops in Panama, Los Angeles and San Francisco.
Taiwanese media reported Mr Ma's trip and the inaugurations were the reasons why some Latin American leaders were not attending tonight's opening ceremony.
Planning this trip on an unprecedentedly small budget and with a small entourage, Mr Ma hoped to match his actions to his recent advocacy of a 'diplomatic truce' with Beijing - namely, abandoning the previous diplomatic tussle over these 23 allies with Beijing.
Taiwan's only ally in Europe, the Vatican, will be sending Hong Kong Coadjutor Bishop John Tong Hon to attend the opening ceremony.
There have been positive signs in recent months in the formerly icy Sino-Vatican relationship. In May, a Chinese state orchestra and opera group performed in the Pope's honour at the Vatican.
'The Pope gave similar blessings at that performance,' said Zhuo Xinping , director of the Institute of World Religions at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. 'I think both sides have friendly intentions to maintain a dialogue and to get to know each other better.'
