Seven years in the making, the Beijing Olympics is upon us. At enormous cost, China will be showcased, but which China? It is a land of enormous possibilities but equally enormous frustrations. The role China plays on the world stage in the coming decades may determine how future generations view the 21st century.
In three decades, China has gone from outcast to influential insider - and host of the 2008 Olympics.
Much of the debate over China and the Olympics reflects a special western conceit: that America and Europe can change China. Critics want to make Beijing respect human rights at home, promote democracy in Zimbabwe, end ethnic and religious strife in Sudan, accept an independent Taiwan, go along with western arms and proliferation policies, revalue its currency, make its military spending transparent, and more.
Worthy ends all, but none are within the power of the west to impose. The China that could be browbeaten by outsiders disappeared long ago. The most powerful incentive for China to change its behaviour is the desire to play a larger international role, which means the west can affect China's future direction. But to do so - positively - will require sophistication and nuance rather than outrage and threats.
Some critics view China as a threat like the old Soviet Union. But Beijing is not a natural enemy of America, let alone Europe. Certainly, there are those who wish the US ill. Yet China, like Washington, is faction-ridden, with ideologues and pragmatists scrapping for influence, including over foreign policy. The patriots, or nationalists - depending on your perspective - who are determined to prevent the US and other nations from coercing China in the future appear to be dominant. They are not friendly to Washington's imperial pretensions, but aren't likely to ignite a nuclear holocaust, either.
Anyway, the US is way ahead militarily, despite the endless scare stories about accelerating Chinese military expenditure. The US is also allied with every major industrialised state other than Russia. China is surrounded by allies of the US and countries which fought it in the past. That's a poor starting position from which to achieve world domination.
What Washington really fears is the possibility that Beijing will create a military that, while relatively limited in capabilities, is able to deter American intervention, particularly in any action against Taiwan.