Starving North Korea on brink of collapse
An array of intelligence analysts, Asian and American scholars, specialists in think-tanks, and workers in relief organisations have renewed speculation that the North Korean regime of Kim Jong-il is in danger of collapsing because the nation is on the brink of mass starvation and mounting isolation.
No one will even guess when this might happen - within a year, more likely within five, almost surely within 10. Will the collapse be a 'soft landing' in which Mr Kim's regime gradually falls apart with South Korea picking up by pieces, or will the regime implode with chaos sweeping the land?
The consequences of a regime change in Pyongyang could be staggering. Immediately, US, South Korean, and Chinese troops could charge into North Korea to secure its nuclear facilities - and confront each other. Mid term, reviving North Korea could cost South Korea, Japan, China, and the US enormous sums. Long term, a reunited Korea would change the power balance of East Asia - but unpredictably.
Analysts everywhere point to a decade of hunger that has left seven-year-old North Korean children 20cm shorter and 9kg lighter than their South Korean cousins.
North Korean soldiers in a regime that gives priority to the military forces have been reduced to two skimpy meals a day.
That has led to conjecture that North Koreans, despite the pervasive controls in the Hermit Kingdom's police state, may throw caution to the winds. 'We just don't think they can go along with this much longer,' said a US official with access to intelligence assessments.
The Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington reports that North Korea, after 10 years of food shortages, stands on the precipice of famine that could have political consequences.
Even so, an assessment from Jane's, publisher of security reports, said five years ago: 'The only significant power base that might challenge the regime is the military. Since Kim Jong-il became chairman of the National Defence Commission, he has promoted 230 generals. Most of the army's 1,200-strong general officer corps owes their allegiance to him.'
Added to the pressures on the regime is the increasing isolation of Pyongyang. The six-party talks among North Korea, South Korea, China, Japan, Russia, and the US, intended to persuade Mr Kim to give up his nuclear ambitions, are stalled with no end in sight.
China and Russia no longer seem to have an ideological commitment to the communist state and were clearly miffed when it detonated a nuclear device in 2006.
The opening ceremony of the Beijing Olympic Games reflected power relations in East Asia. President Hu Jintao was host to US President George W. Bush, Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, Japanese Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda and South Korean President Lee Myung-bak. Missing was Kim Jong-il.
Richard Halloran is a former New York Times foreign correspondent in Asia and military correspondent in Washington
