Paralympic events, such as those now being staged, will be a thing of the past by the middle of this century, predicts Ian Goldin, director of the James Martin 21st Century School at the University of Oxford. 'Those issues will have been solved through medical miracles, certainly for younger people,' he said.
The 'miracles' include the ability to regrow nerve fibres so that people regain control over their limbs, to clone organs, and to genetically identify and eliminate diseases that lead to physical disabilities.
'These things are not science fiction,' Dr Goldin said during a visit to Hong Kong. 'These things are in development. It's a question of when, not if, they will come to the market. Crucially, it's also a question of for whom? Will they be available for the whole of society or only for the super rich or the richest countries?'
Such questions peppered his presentation to a seminar last Saturday organised by the Hong Kong Foresight Project, a new group that aims to encourage new thinking and public policy development.
Researchers at Dr Goldin's school believe there is already someone alive today who will live to be 150. He said the key question was what would the quality of life be for people who lived well beyond 100. Even if they are still sharp and fit - his school is working on new approaches to dementia, Alzheimer's and Parkinson's - what are the implications for society?
He predicts that, by 2030, there will be only two workers for every pensioner in wealthy countries and that the retirement age will be abolished. 'Young people had better not rely on pensions would be my advice,' said the South African-born economist. 'And don't expect to inherit your parents' house when you're 40. You might inherit it when you're 80. And don't expect to get your boss' job when you're 30 because they won't leave their job until they're 75.'