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SCMP Reporter

Immaculately groomed, relaxed and smiling among his rivals for the premiership of Japan, Taro Aso  looked like a winner yesterday.
Speaking at a function in central Tokyo ahead of Monday's internal party election that is expected to make him Japan's new prime minister, the former foreign minister gave every impression that he had the five-horse race sewn up.
'The others spoke about what they would do if they got the job, Aso acted if the job was already his,' said one seasoned political observer watching the debate at the Foreign Correspondents' Club of Japan.
'He was talking as if he was already prime minister.'
Mr Aso was calmly treading a nuanced line, making no apologies for his reputation as a nationalistic hawk, yet also outlining a regional future guided by mutual interests rather than mutual suspicion.
'I'm a hawk in the sense that I'm resolved to sacrifice myself for Japan's role in bringing peace and stability and to protect the national interest,' Mr Aso said.
'With regard to China and South Korea, I think that various problems will emerge. We don't have to get flustered as Japan, China and South Korea are all destined to prosper together.'
On the surface, it may not appear a highly diplomatic line but, by Mr Aso's fiery standards, it is unlikely to ruffle any feathers.
Promoted to foreign minister from the grey ranks of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party by the then prime minister, Junichiro Koizumi,  Mr Aso was a controversial choice.
Despite decidedly frosty relations with Beijing during Mr Koizumi's tenure, Mr Aso was an unapologetic defender of political visits to Tokyo's Yasukuni war shrine in Tokyo, where Class-A war criminals executed at the end of the second world war are enshrined among the war dead.
He mocked Beijing's protests, suggesting at one point that they even inspired him. 'It is just like when you're told, 'don't smoke cigarettes', it actually makes you want to smoke. It is best to keep quiet,' he said.
Then there is the fact that he is heir to the Aso Mining Company, which employed slave labour during Japan's war-time occupation of the Korean Peninsula.
Yet, particularly in private, Mr Aso has displayed a far more diplomatic side in his dealings with Beijing and Seoul. Kept on under Mr Koizumi's replacement, Shinzo Abe,  Mr Aso helped oversee a thaw in the China relationship - a shift reflecting both the popular mood and business realities, given China's new role as Japan's biggest trading partner.
That trend has accelerated under outgoing prime minister Yasuo Fukuda,  marked by the successful visit of President Hu Jintao  to Tokyo in April.
'Mr Aso has shown us all that, whatever his private views and background, he is prepared to work for the national interest in terms of an improved relationship with China,' said one veteran Japanese envoy involved in the China relationship. 'I am sure China has a good understanding of that. Beijing does know that Mr Aso is a man they can deal with.'
The view that the trend towards improved relations is unlikely to change is also shared widely in Beijing, according to a range of analysts, even if Mr Aso would not be Beijing's first choice as leader.
'The general trend of improving relations will continue no matter who takes over,' Qin Yaqing, a professor who has advised officials on policy towards Tokyo, told Reuters recently.
If Japan's relations with China under Mr Aso are not as tricky as they might first appear, other questions are likely to dog his reign.
He takes the helm at a time of unprecedented pressure on the LDP,  a grouping of conservative factions that has ruled Japan for virtually all of the past 52 years.
A resurgent opposition Democratic Party of Japan seized control of the upper house, creating an unprecedented legislative log-jam.
The LDP  still controls the lower house of the Diet, and therefore keeps in government, but life is now much more complicated.
The toll has been clear on both Mr Abe and Mr Fukuda, neither of whom was able to last a year. Mr Abe left amid plunging polls and personal illness while Mr Fukuda, despite long-coveted foreign policy successes, found himself politically impotent amid signs of fresh economic recession.
After the grey sense of stability offered in vain by Mr Fukuda, Mr Aso offers an injection of vitality. A youthful 68 (he celebrates his birthday today), Mr Aso has forged a warm public persona compared with many of his more bland colleagues. He is famous, for example, for his love of manga comics, happily allowing himself to be photographed reading them along with is official papers in his ministerial limousine.
With a wealthy family, political pedigree and regal ties behind him, he projects an easy confidence in public, favouring light suits compared with the dark, sombre tones of so many of his political peers.
Tokyo political insiders believe the party is almost certain to pounce on that vitality should his anticipated victory spark a jump in the polls. Keep an eye out for a snap national election in late October or early November.
If the LDP does even slightly better than expected in any fresh election, Mr Aso may be in with a chance to get secure in office. But even a narrow victory could prove dangerous to his long-term chances.
If he does slip, the factional fighting could threaten the future of the party, traditionally one of the region's best-funded and most formidable political machines.
Should that happen, seasoned Japanese political analysts will be keeping a close watch on Yuriko Koike,  a former defence minister and a close ally of Mr Koizumi.
Ms Koike has styled herself as Japan's 'Hillary' and is one of the four candidates competing with Mr Aso but is considered a long shot in Monday's internal poll.
The famously enigmatic Mr Koizumi generally rides above national politics but has publicly backed his former protege.  He has done little to campaign actively for her, however.
Yet, if the party does splinter, Ms Koike may be tempted to go it alone with her own party, one devoted to the long-stalled political reforms marshalled by Mr Koizumi.
This, coupled with an unconventional background (Ms Koike is fluent in Arabic and has lived in Cairo), presents significant electoral appeal, particularly with young women who are traditionally ignored by the ageing men filling the smoke-filled rooms of the LDP.
This Monday, however, it is almost certain to be Mr Aso's moment, as 528 LDP legislators and provincial officials decide the future of Japan, the world's second-largest economy.
He narrowly missed out on the job, losing to Mr Fukuda last year, despite being the frontrunner. With four others splitting the vote, he appears to know he has it in the bag this year.
He may appear relaxed, yet insiders suggest he knows full well he must sip from a poisoned chalice that represents arguably the toughest job in regional politics.



Moment in the spotlight draws ever closer for manga-mad Aso