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Fabio Scarpello

Few people were surprised when Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono  announced his intention to run for a second term. In fact, the candidacy of the incumbent was a foregone conclusion.
His re-election, however, is not.
Dr Susilo, the first directly elected president of the world's third-largest democracy, said  he wanted  more time to  finish the economic programmes and political reforms he  started.
'God willing, I will run again for president in 2009,' he announced  at the State Palace. 'I'll be grateful if I have another chance to continue to fix and finish  [reforms]  for better development.'
Indonesia will hold legislative elections on April 9,  and the presidential vote will follow within three months.
About 174 million people have the right to vote, and  about 80 per cent usually cast a ballot.
Dr Susilo was elected in 2004 when he handsomely beat the  incumbent Megawati Sukarnoputri  in a run-off.
His  platform called for a  drive against corruption, spurring  growth and creating jobs.
A series of natural disasters and the skyrocketing price of oil dogged his tenure and the results have been mixed.
His supporters say that under Dr Susilo's watch, the reconstruction of Aceh,  Sumatra,  after the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami has been a success.
Peace has been achieved with the former rebel group,  the Free Aceh Movement (GAM), and troubles have been contained in  two of the country's other trouble spots, Poso, in Central Sulawesi province, and Papua.
They also mention that firm and fair  preventive measures have  put more  militants behind bars and  there has not been a terrorist attack since 2005.
It is also claimed that under Dr Susilo's rule the independent Anti-Corruption Commission has made inroads into the graft-ridden state apparatus.
The once-dominant military has also started to hand back its businesses and has largely stayed out of politics.
Political analyst Salim Said  noted: 'Dr Susilo consolidated the democratic process that started with the fall of Suharto in May 1998.'
The president's legitimacy is uncontested and, in the  past few years, Indonesia has held hundreds of local elections that are giving meaning to the process of decentralisation.
However, not everyone is convinced the president has done enough.
The International Crisis Group  blamed him for having allowed the conservative Islamist Indonesia Ulama Council  to play a role in government  policy. This has contributed to a rise in religious intolerance throughout the archipelago.
In Indonesia, the world's most populous  Muslim country, live  large Christian, Buddhist and Hindu minorities as well as various denominations of marginal Islamic groups.
But Irsyad Zamjani  of Jakarta's Centre of Asian Studies  said  the incumbent's main failure  was his alleged inability to improve the life of the country's poor.
'People voted for him because he promised change and improvements. But not much has changed for the lower classes,' he said.
'The president lost a lot of support after he raised the fuel price by 30 per cent last May.'
The  increase was  because of ballooning subsidies on the back of soaring global oil prices. It sparked protests in the country where millions  were already suffering from rising food prices.
Economists supported the decision, deemed essential to help  ease the drain on state coffers and keep the economy ticking.
Under Dr Susilo, the country has enjoyed its longest positive economic trend since the 1997  financial crisis, with  gross domestic product growing at  about 6 per cent  a year. But critics say  this has not translated into improvements for the majority.
The country is mired in stark contrasts, with huge disparities between regions and  classes.
Unemployment and underemployment  are leaving millions in poverty and making them restless. In his State of the Nation address  in August, the president said the poverty rate had been reduced from 17.7 per cent in February 2006 to 15.4 per cent - but the World Bank believes that almost half of Indonesia's 240 million people live on less than US$2 a day.
During the election campaign, Dr Susilo  promised that he would  halve the poverty rate by next year.
A handful of candidates have already put their names forward for the race.  These include former military men Wiranto  and Prabowo Subianto  and newcomers  Soetrisno Bachir  and Rizal Mallarangeng,   a young political analyst who has asked Dr Susilo to step aside.
However, the real contest is still likely to be between Dr Susilo and  Ms Megawati, with the main  difference from 2004 being that the former is now the incumbent.
In 2004, Dr Susilo - an eloquent orator in stark contrast to the aloof Ms Megawati - banked on his charisma and appealed directly to the people.
'But next year, these same people may not have much faith in him any more,' said Mr Irsyad.
Polls  this year put Ms Megawati in a clear lead. While most believe that Dr Susilo  will win an eventual head-to-head, the road to re-election no longer seems as downhill as many had predicted only a few months ago.
An important factor, analysts agree, may be the choice of vice-presidential candidate.
When he announced his candidacy, Dr Susilo said: 'It's too early to say, but it's highly possible [that I will] run with JK.'
JK stands for Jusuf Kalla,  the vice-president who chairs the Golkar party - the country's largest political force.   Mr Kalla has hinted at his readiness to keep his position.
The two men have different personalities and have encountered problems during the first term. But they have worked relatively well together and are seen as a strong pair.
According to studies, Indonesians pick their leader largely on  personal appeal. But party affiliations are still crucial to gain the nomination, win  extra votes and ensure that the president has the necessary support in parliament to implement policies.
A draft law currently under discussion could make it mandatory for a group of parties to have at least 30 per cent of the seats  before they can nominate presidential candidates.
Currently the requirement is 15 per cent.
For the April  legislative elections, a  poll has ranked Ms Megawati's Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) first with 23 per cent, followed by Golkar with 16 per cent. Dr Susilo's Democrat Party (DP) and the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS) were tied for third place with 10 per cent.
If the choice of Mr Kalla were confirmed, Dr Susilo would corner Ms Megawati, who has lately flirted with  Golkar.
In this case, PDI-P could be tempted to  form a coalition with the   Islamist PKS.
'This alliance is theoretically possible, but difficult due to the conflicting ideologies they convey,' said  analyst Fachry Ali.
The staunchly secular  PDI-P is seen as the natural  home for the country's religious minorities. PKS hides its wish to turn Indonesia into an Islamic state under a thin veil.
Political observer  Jacqueline Hicks said  Ms Megawati could still make a deal  with PKS 'to cover all bases in the electoral spectrum'.
PKS chief Hidayat Nur Wahid  has said  his party keeps  its options open although he  currently supports Dr Susilo in government and there have also been rumours of a PD-PKS presidential ticket.
However, Ms Hicks argued that the real action on presidential candidates  would take place after the legislative election, which  would determine the relative power balance of each party.
'Only then will they be able to do the hard bargaining that is required in the  coalitional political system,'  she said.



Susilo calls for fresh mandate