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Sign of the times

The number of job advertisements has fallen sharply in the third quarter as Hong Kong's economy comes under pressure

The fallout from the global financial crisis appears to have taken a toll on Hong Kong's job market.

Figures from the South China Morning Post/admanGo survey, tracking job vacancies advertised in Hong Kong's six major recruitment publications, revealed that jobs posted in the third quarter fell 20 per cent to 65,933 advertisements, from 81,972 during the corresponding period last year.

Drops were recorded across all major industries, including banking and finance (down 18 per cent), clothing and fashion (17 per cent), hotel and catering (26 per cent), manufacturing (41 per cent) and trading (39 per cent).

Education and training were the only sectors where the number of job advertisements stayed flat, edging down only 1 per cent compared with the third quarter of last year. By job function, demand for merchandising and purchasing roles fell 40 per cent, accounting, finance and insurance 31 per cent, management jobs went down 25 per cent, and sales positions dipped 22 per cent.

The third quarter began with a 7 per cent decline in vacancies posted in July, this worsened into decreases of 21 per cent and 29 per cent respectively for August and September.

Taking into account comparably higher growth in the first half of this year, job advertisements edged up 2 per cent in the first nine months of the year, compared with the corresponding period last year.

Kelvin Lau Kin-heng, an economist at Standard Chartered Bank, said the slowdown in the United States and European economies was hurting Hong Kong's exports, with new orders having fallen considerably in the past three months. Mr Lau said that the financial crisis overseas was hurting onshore sentiment in the local stock and property markets, and was leading to a weaker incentive for households to spend.

He added that Hong Kong's economic fundamentals remained strong. Compared with previous United States recessions, with corporate and household balance sheets relatively less leveraged, Hong Kong may be in a better position to weather the economic storm.

'There will be some challenging times ahead,' he said, adding that he did not expect the financial crisis in the US to be resolved quickly.

Mr Lau said that US consumers were still highly leveraged. He said Hong Kong would continue to be hit by external factors.

Domestically, sentiment would be an important factor in how the economy would perform in the short term, he said. 'I can't rule out [that] we will see another three or four quarters of below-trend growth,' Mr Lau said.

'We can see the unemployment rate increasing by the end of this year, and higher unemployment could continue throughout 2009. There is no immunity in terms of industries and we are seeing slowdowns left, right and centre.'

He added that the obvious causalities so far had been the financial services sector, and import and export. He said there were signs of weakness in the tourism industry, with tourist spending slowing down.

Dan Chavasse, managing director for Greater China and Southeast Asia at recruitment firm Michael Page International, agreed that Hong Kong's economic fundamentals were strong. However, he said while there was uncertainty in the market and a greater degree of caution among candidates and employers, hiring was not expected to slow down to drastically.

'Recruitment is a very cyclical business and we can't disguise that,' Mr Chavasse said. 'The message is there are lots of very healthy companies around Hong Kong who are still hiring, and good people are still in demand. There is still a shortage of good quality candidates, and this hasn't gone away overnight because of the financial crisis.

'Candidates should be confident that they can get a decent job in this market, it is not like the shutters have come down like they did in 2001.'

He said that some companies, many of them multinationals whose headquarters were in the US, might have delayed planned hires.

Mr Chavasse noted that banking and finance had been particularly hard hit, especially investment banking. However, he said that this had provided an opportunity for second- and third-tier banks to recruit candidates they otherwise would not have been able to attract during a bull market.

Unlike in Britain, he said the retail sector, especially on the mainland, was doing particularly well, with Chinese consumers continuing to try to improve their standard of living.

He said salaries were expected to remain flat, but people who switched jobs could look forward to increases in pay - although the raises would be more modest than what they might have expected a year ago. The wild card was expected to be bonuses, which would depend on how the economy performed in the next few months and on the specific industry, he said.

'Everybody should still be thinking about how they can improve their career prospects, but make sure that if you are going to move that you move to an organisation where your own personal career is going to go forward, don't do it for an extra dollar,' Mr Chavasse said.

'Do it because you get greater experience to develop as an individual. It's always been the way frankly, it's just in times like these that people have to be more careful as to how they evaluate their new job.'

Wilfred Wong Kam-pui, president of the Hong Kong Institute of Human Resources Management, said that job candidates should continue to upgrade their skill sets. He expects employers to be cautious when considering salary adjustments. However, he would not rule out pay freezes or even cuts.

He agreed that job opportunities in the market had declined as a result of the effects of the financial crisis in the US, adding that weak sentiment had driven down consumption.

However, he said that employers should think carefully when making headcount decisions, and not rush into making panic layoffs.

Caroline Edwards, executive vice-president for executive search firm DHR International, said that while the outlook for junior and middle ranking jobs was uncertain, recruitment for senior level executives, such as vice-presidents directors, managing directors, general managers and other C-suites roles, had remained healthy in Asia.

Pointing to the high-profile hire of bankrupt investment bank Lehman Brothers' energy division by rival UBS, and similar growth signals from Deutsche Bank, JP Morgan and the Royal Bank of Scotland, Ms Edwards said she had seen triple digit growth in certain industries - a trend she expects to continue until the end of the year.

Other areas that were also positive, Ms Edwards said, included energy, and health care and life sciences. There had been no news regarding major cuts in salaries, but she expects there to be bonus payments for the top staff, with human resources departments in Hong Kong eager to retain their best employees.

Ms Edwards said that overseas candidates were still interested in relocating to Asia. However, she said executives without prior Asian experience might find it difficult, with many employers looking for people with regional market experience and industry connections.

Companies were, however, interested in employing returnees who had previously sought opportunities elsewhere, she said.

'Generally speaking, I think what we are hearing is that the numbers of job opportunities are down. It's a worldwide issue, Hong Kong is affected by a lot of things happening around us.'

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