Hawkes Bay has long promised to win a good race and the day for the David Hall-trained gelding to land his upset might have arrived with today's Group Three Mission Hills Sha Tin Trophy (1,600m).
Horse Of the Year Good Ba Ba (Olivier Doleuze) has to be respected over the course where he was undefeated for most of last season, but most is the operative word.
His wins came in set-weights events but it was this race that saw his one loss when second to Down Town, and the return to handicap conditions with 133 pounds makes him vulnerable.
Sha Tin Trophy results are littered with the corpses of defeated Horses Of The Year and established Group One stars like Vengeance Of Rain, Bullish Luck, Elegant Fashion, Viva Pataca, Perfect Partner, Bowman's Crossing, Johan Cruyff and Oriental Express - to name a few.
Indigenous was the last horse to win with the top weight, carrying 135 pounds in 1998 at the height of his great powers, but several defeats under crushing weights followed in subsequent attempts on the race. And favourites? Our records don't go back far enough to tell you the last winning favourite but there has not been one in the past 14 years.
The Sha Tin Trophy occupies a particular niche in the season - a starting point towards the internationals for many topliners, who like Good Ba Ba have established their credentials in terms races and now come back to a handicap conceding plenty of weight to decent rivals with a run under their belts.
The task is not impossible but it is considerable and this race has been dominated by lower-weighted horses.
