The mainland's top government-backed think-tank has forecast an optimistic 9 per cent economic growth rate next year in its latest report, bucking the trend of pessimistic predictions prevalent among independent observers.
Wang Tongsan, an economist with the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, which compiled the 2009 Economic Blue Paper, said the upbeat outlook was based on the presumption that Beijing would roll out more radical measures on top of the 4 trillion yuan (HK$4.5 trillion) package unveiled last month and begin a further series of interest rate cuts to reinvigorate the sluggish economy.
'I think there's a big chance to realise a 9 per cent, if not higher, growth rate,' said Mr Wang. 'The likelihood [of this level of growth] stands at 70 per cent.'
The report also revealed a stagnation of exports in Guangdong, one of the most export-reliant provinces, mirroring an overall sharp slowdown in the country's foreign trade.
The prognosis painted a far brighter picture for the economy next year than most forecasts by international researchers in the past two months.
The market consensus is that any growth rate less than 8 per cent will be too low to create enough jobs for the vast workforce.
