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Probability Theory

In-play betting is the best guide for Whyte

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Why you can trust SCMP
Alan Aitken

Douglas Whyte showed himself to be human on Wednesday at Happy Valley when he was sent off a worthy odds-on favourite for the Jockey Challenge, but failed to salute after going winless for the night.

However, supporters who were happy to take the short odds on Wednesday should dip into their reserves and butter up again at Sha Tin, where the key to getting better odds than the 1.35 posted last night will be whether main rivals Felix Coetzee (8.0) and Darren Beadman (12.0) do well in the first race.

Whyte rides first-starter Great Unity for John Size, who has shown some ability at the trials, but Coetzee and Beadman probably have better chances to open the card.

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If they get away well, Whyte's price might ease a little but not too far because the South African will then throw his leg over a barrage of favourites in Super, Little Big Boy, Amazing Journey and Tuscan Spirit in the next four races, and later he teams up with two more likely outright favourites in Monte Cristo and Presto. It's a powerful line-up and perhaps Whyte supporters shouldn't wait longer than one race before making their play or they'll be looking at a very cramped return.

If there is any value to be had at better odds in the Challenge, it may be Beadman, who has some nice rides but always starts off some kind of handicap vis-a-vis Whyte as he rarely has a full book.

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His seven rides are headed up by Triumphant Unicorn's brother, Happy Zero, in the opening race for retaining trainer John Moore and if he can lodge some points there, he will be in with some sort of a shout.

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