THE dramatic 19 per cent fall in the Hang Seng Index over the last five weeks since the interest rate increase in the United States on February 4 has many brokers looking to technical analysis for answers and directions. To give an idea of what the professionals will be looking at this week, we have reproduced a technical analysis from British brokerage Barclays de Zoete Wedd. Bear in mind these predictions are based on what happened in the past, so they should be taken with a grain of salt. But they are worthwhile taking a look at because they do, at the very least, affect the psychology of the market. The charts basically plot the past performance of the index, measuring its highs and lows, and producing a trend line. The trend lines tell you the range in which the market is likely to trade at any given time. The first chart shows the four-day moving average closing level of the Hang Seng Index since November last year. According to Nial Gooding of Barclays de Zoete Wedd, the key level the market will have to address this week is the 9,700 to 9,800-point support level. As can be seen on the chart, the 9,700 level proved a resistance point twice on the way up in November last year, which in techno-speak makes it an important support level. According to Mr Gooding, if we drop below this level, the next strong support level is at 9,200. If the market does settle around 9,200 next week, the predictions become more bleak. Chart 2 shows the actual closing levels of the Hang Seng Index since October 1992. The market stayed in the lower of the two bands until October last year when the great influx of foreign funds pushed it into the higher band. The chart shows that the lower range of the top band is at present 9,200. The fear is that if the market passes through this level next week, it could conceivably drop back to the lower band which it followed for most of last year. This would give a mid-point objective of 8,400 to 8,500. An optimistic Mr Gooding said the most likely scenario was that the market would find strong support around 9,200 and quickly move back to 10,200 in the short term, with 10,800 as the top range of the higher band.