Ruling team doesn't believe it can reach consensus on poll changes
If official hints last week of a delay in public consultation on electoral reform were not clear enough, Tuesday's warning by the head of the mainland's central bank of the risk of political instability in Hong Kong were a cue for the chief executive's announcement of a deferral.
Zhou Xiaochuan told local advisers to the central authorities that the financial turmoil would continue to erode confidence in Hong Kong and Macau, thus posing a threat to stability. Against that backdrop, Donald Tsang Yam-kuen's words yesterday should not have surprised anyone.
With the worst of the recession yet to come and politics still in flux following September's Legislative Council election, pressing ahead now with consultation on arrangements for electing the chief executive and legislature in 2012 would be fraught with uncertainty.
Yesterday's scenes of disorder at Mr Tsang's question-time session in Legco says something about the current social tensions.
Admittedly, the League of Social Democrats' legislators do not reflect mainstream opinion, but the anti-establishment mood of a vocal minority. But to the Tsang team, the environment is plainly not conducive to bridging the gaps in opinion about the methods of election to use, let alone to achieving consensus.
Put bluntly, the ruling team has no confidence in its ability to bring political and social factions any closer through consultation in the next few months - even though conditions in the fourth quarter of the year, when the consultation will now begin, may not be any more conducive.