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Toh Han Shih

Hong Kong's container volume grew just 1 per cent last year,  its worst performance in seven years, and some experts believe shipments will  decline this year  at the steepest rate in at least 18 years.
The 1 per cent growth in  container throughput  was the worst since 2001, which saw a decline of 1.5 per cent, according to the Hong Kong Port Development Council, which provided last year's estimate.
Container throughput last month  fell 24.1 per cent, compared with a year ago, a steeper decline than the 13.2 per cent drop in November.
Deteriorating container throughput was a sign that the trading environment in Hong Kong was not healthy and was hurting the economy as a whole, said Sunny Ho Lap-kee, an executive director of the Hong Kong Shippers' Council.
'The 2009 figures will be worse,' Mr Ho said.
He forecast Hong Kong's container throughput to fall 10 per cent this year and Shenzhen's  to deteriorate from 1.5 per cent growth last year to a 15 per cent drop this year.
Shenzhen's container throughput fell 15.7 per cent last month, its worst performance since it began operations in the 1990s.
Hong Kong port's performance mirrors Shenzhen's as a substantial portion of Hong Kong container cargo is transshipment from Shenzhen.
'This is an educated guess, based on the forecasts by the major export markets of Hong Kong and southern China,' Mr Ho said.
He pointed to the 7.2 per cent United States unemployment rate in December, the highest in almost 16 years, adding that unemployment in the US and Europe would worsen in the months ahead.
Charles de Trenck, an analyst with Transport Trackers,  predicted a decline of Hong Kong's container throughput in the low to mid-single digits this year.
If either prediction is correct, 2009 will see the worst performance of Hong Kong's container throughput since at least 1990.
'Last December was one of the worst months in the last decade,' said Mr Ho. 'The 24.1 per cent drop in December indicates the situation is deteriorating.'
He predicted the first half would see a double-digit  drop in Hong Kong's container throughput while the second half would see a single-digit decline.
The two major port operators of Hong Kong and Shenzhen are  Hutchison Port Holdings  and Modern Terminals Ltd (MTL), which is majority-owned by Wharf (Holdings).
Mr Ho said  both operators would be hit by  falling container volumes and lower rates.
'Hong Kong's throughput in January is expected to be similar to December's,' said an MTL spokesman.
Container shipments in the  Port of Long Beach, a major destination of shipments from Hong Kong and Shenzhen, fell 11 per cent last year,  the biggest decline in more than 20 years, according to the US port's website.
Last year, Hong Kong was the third-busiest container port in the world, while Shenzhen was fourth, Shanghai second and Singapore first. Shanghai's container throughput grew 6.8 per cent,  while Singapore's increased 7.1 per cent.



HK container shipment growth slows to seven-year low of 1pc