While Asia understands the nature of the beast when it comes to dealing with the US, dealing with China is a very different proposition. It is an emerging power, but what will it look like when it is fully mature? The answer is obviously critical for regional stability. A recently published paper from the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, a think-tank based in Canberra, asks: what sort of great power will China be? It's difficult to answer, according to the paper's authors, Rod Lyons and Christine Leah, who note that China's rival in the emerging-power stakes - India - is a more straightforward case. Democratic India tends to wear its heart on its sleeve. The authors argue that the picture that has emerged so far is complex. Beijing is concerned about its image abroad but, while it is intent on carving out its own space in the global power matrix, this does not mean the result will be conflict with the US in the process. Clearly, it is important for the likes of Australia to try to accurately forecast what China will be like by, say, the middle of this century. A hostile, nationalistic China would create instability and the potential for regional flashpoints. So what can Australia, a middle-ranking power, do to influence China's growth as a superpower over the course of the next few decades? It can use its existing relationship to encourage 'China to play a greater role in some form of regional economic stabilisation during the current financial crisis', the authors say. Encouraging China to play a leadership role in other areas is also in the region's interests. In assuming the mantle of a superpower, China will, if it heeds the words of Joseph Nye - who coined the phrase 'soft power' - have to remember that 'success depends not only on whose army wins, but also on whose story wins'. A primary tool of 'soft power' is aid. On this front, Canberra and Beijing do not always see eye to eye. Chinese support for the East Timorese military and undermining Australian aid-based reform efforts in Papua New Guinea and the Solomon Islands through the use of 'chequebook diplomacy' are primary points of tension. One way to influence China's 'soft power' approach might be for Australia to propose that the two combine on aid and development initiatives to marginal Asia-Pacific states. How China's superpower image is defined will obviously depend on what happens within the country. If instability, corruption and pollution become chronic, the report authors argue, this would militate against China being at ease with the world. The impact of the dramatic drop in economic growth has yet to be fully played out, but the risk of social and political unrest cannot be ruled out. There is little that Australia can do to influence what happens over the next few months, or even years, in this regard. However, it may have some real leverage in helping to shape a benign Chinese superpower by advising Japan and the US not to exclude China from dialogue on regional defence co-operation. Greg Barns is a political commentator in Australia and a former Australian government adviser
