Let public opinion guide electoral reform

Hong Kong lost several years in the move towards universal suffrage when pan-democratic legislators in 2005 vetoed the political reform package proposed by Chief Executive Donald Tsang Yam-kuen. As a result, there was no improvement whatsoever in the electoral arrangements in 2007 for the chief executive and in 2008 for the Legislative Council.

Now, it looks as if history may repeat itself. While the government's political reform proposals for the 2012 elections have not yet been disclosed - in fact, even the public consultation has yet to be held - there is already discussion of what will happen if the package expected to be unveiled next year is again vetoed.

If that happened, we would be stuck in the old election mode for four more years.

This time, there is even more at stake than the actual elections in 2012: there is the chief executive election scheduled for 2017, which Beijing has said can be held by universal suffrage. However, the Basic Law stipulates that the ultimate aim of universal suffrage should be achieved 'in accordance with the principle of gradual and orderly progress'.

If there has been no progress in either 2007 or 2012, can we really expect universal suffrage in 2017? Yes, says Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Stephen Lam Sui-lung.

'The NPC decision in 2007 did not stipulate progress in 2012 as a precondition for implementing universal suffrage in 2017,' Mr Lam said. 'But the government clearly hopes there would be progress in the 2012 chief executive and Legco elections to lay the foundations.'

Even if the NPC decision itself did not set a precondition, we still have the language of the Basic Law, which is unambiguous. So, if there is no movement in 2012, it will at the least give Beijing an excuse for denying universal suffrage in 2017. It is not a risk we ought to take. There must be progress in 2012, which means that the government must come up with proposals that are acceptable to a two-thirds majority in Legco.