US Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton's Asian tour signalled that important shifts in US policy may soon take place. Perhaps most intriguingly, she hinted that Washington's Myanmar policy, long cast in stone, is now open for debate. Ruled by a brutal and inept junta, Myanmar is viewed as a pariah state by the US. Aid was cut two decades ago, when military forces crushed the '8-8-88' democracy demonstrations. Political contact was eliminated. Tough economic sanctions were gradually imposed. By and large, though, the practical impact of US policy over all those years has been zero. The junta remains in control. Democratic icon Aung San Suu Kyi languishes under house arrest. Minority ethnic groups are targeted, displaced and, in some instances, denied citizenship. The predatory state continues with business as usual. As a result, the US is today looking for new ways forward on Myanmar. During her regional tour, Mrs Clinton freely acknowledged that US policy had failed. She also noted that constructive engagement promoted within Asia had not chalked up much success. This new US openness finds echoes in the region. When protesting monks were beaten back by the army in September 2007, China spoke publicly of the Myanmar problem and called on the junta to listen to its people, learn from others and engage in dialogue and reform. Other Asian states are also increasingly bothered by the junta on their doorstep. The time is thus ripe for action. But, to register real progress, and ensure that the junta is fully engaged, the US must reach out to the key external power, China, and think through the issue from its perspective. On the Myanmar problem, what would Beijing do? Above all else, China will not want to endanger a regional balance carefully crafted during its peaceful rise. A coalition comprising the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, India and Japan, alongside the US and China, is therefore an essential tool of engagement. Beijing has no interest in sanctions and moral posturing, and no investment in Ms Suu Kyi, though it recognises the reverence in which she is held by her compatriots. It knows that rapid political change could destabilise Myanmar and the region. On these issues, the US must develop a degree of flexibility. At the same time, in many areas, Washington and Beijing are already on the same page. Promoting compliance with the UN agenda of open dialogue and national reconciliation is one. Boosting aid flows and rebuilding a devastated economy is another. Stabilising a fragile policy is still another. Co-ordinated action will not deliver instant reform. But, with the army so dominant, that is not on the cards anyway. It could, however, help loosen the junta's grip. After years of scant progress, Mrs Clinton's tour has put the Myanmar problem back in play. The task now is to build the coalition and understandings to deliver change. Professor Ian Holliday is dean of social sciences at the University of Hong Kong
