Hong Kong could face at least two years of tough times before the economy begins to show signs of recovery, the government's financial projections show.
The administration's forecast means real gross domestic product growth may reach 3.5 per cent in 2011 and continue to rise.
The government estimates the economy will shrink by 2 per cent to 3 per cent this year, down from growth of 2.5 per cent last year.
Warning that this year would be a very difficult one, Financial Secretary John Tsang Chun-wah said both exports and local consumption were expected to remain subdued.
'Given the fluid economic situation and the varying effects of stimulus measures being taken around the world, it is likely that the global economy will take some time to return to normal,' he said.
'It is hard to predict accurately now when recovery will come about.'
