Momentum is one of the most prized commodities in football. Barcelona have had it all season, Manchester United had it and then mislaid it, and Liverpool supposedly had it before being blown away by Chelsea on Wednesday night. Now Chelsea and Arsenal, having struggled to find top form for most of the season, have found the momentum that could lead to major silverware.
The good news for teams at both ends of the Premier League table is that it is not too late to gather some momentum. At this stage of last season, Fulham had fewer Premier League points than current bottom club West Brom, having won only four games out of 31. Roy Hodgson then somehow conjured four wins from Fulham's last seven games, which enabled them to escape relegation on goal difference.
The difficulty for football punters is how to measure momentum: is it a short-term commodity, or something built over the longer term? Here is one measure that might be useful and informative: an index that compares the points gained in the first four months of the season (the opening 15 games for most Premier League teams) with points in the past four months (covering the next 16 games for most teams). A positive index indicates a team on the up; a negative index points to a team on the slide.
The top team on this index is Blackburn, who took just 13 points from their first 15 games but have taken 21 from their last 16 (all of that improvement has come under Sam Allardyce, who has secured those 21 points from 14 games in charge). Tottenham are next-best, followed by West Ham, Everton, Manchester City and Arsenal.
The index puts numbers to the general perception that those six teams have been improving in recent months, and it also throws into sharp relief the declining form of several struggling clubs. Middlesbrough come out worst: having opened with 19 points from 15 games, they have added just eight points from their last 16 games.
Early high-flyers Hull have fared little better than Middlesbrough in recent months and Portsmouth have been in poor form too. Relegation was the outcome for two of the four teams that were regressing and had fewer than 35 points at this stage of last season, which points to continuing difficulty for Middlesbrough, Newcastle, Portsmouth and Hull. Two of that quartet could be sucked down with West Brom, who are positive on the index but look doomed.
