An HSBC Holdings listing in Shanghai appears to be a near-certainty, said a source briefed by the China Securities Regulatory Commission.
But there are likely to be delays as Beijing works through a host of issues, and there is no guarantee that the bank will become the first foreign entity to list on the mainland.
There are laws to change, biases against foreign banks and many other companies, including a United States and European exchange joint venture, and red-chip companies, which also stand anxiously in the queue to list.
The source said the regulator has already given tacit approval to HSBC and NYSE Euronext - a joint venture between the New York Stock Exchange, the London International Financial Futures & Options Exchange and markets in Paris, Brussels and Amsterdam. As yet there is no timetable for either.
The banking source said NYSE Euronext probably would pre-empt HSBC and be the first to land on the Shanghai bourse because the CSRC believes the exchange operator could generate stable income.
But first, there are legal issues. According to existing mainland law, companies with 25 per cent or more foreign ownership are barred from listing on the mainland stock market.