Much publicity has surrounded proposals made by various democrats on how to ensure progress towards universal suffrage, the most audacious of which is the mass resignation of all 23 pan-democratic legislators. The frustration of the legislators, many of whom have worked for years to achieve democracy for Hong Kong, is understandable. They have been unable to get Chief Executive Donald Tsang Yam-kuen to include the way elections will be held in 2017 and 2020 in the public consultation exercise scheduled for later this year. And, of course, China will not agree to provide a road map. So the frustration - and radicalisation - of legislators is quite natural. But the question is whether what they now propose is going to provide any answers. What is being proposed by the League of Social Democrats -and endorsed by the Civic Party - is that after the consultation document is made public, and if indeed it is limited to reforms to be implemented in 2012 only - then one democratic legislator from each of the five electoral districts will resign. They will then run in the by-election that will have to be held, presumably some time in 2010, and campaign for a road map for the 2017 and 2020 elections, when supposedly first the chief executive and then the entire legislature will be chosen through universal suffrage. The democrats claim that these by-elections, involving all five electoral districts, will in effect be a referendum on universal suffrage. If they are duly re-elected, then the pan-democrats will claim that the electorate at large has spoken, and it would be incumbent on the chief executive and the central government to provide a road map. The Civic Party proposes going further than this. If after a year the chief executive still does not provide a road map, then in mid-2011 all 23 pan-democratic legislators will resign, and they will not run again. There are several problems with this plan. First, if five legislators from the pan-democratic camp resign, this will bring their number to below 20. This means they will lose the ability to veto constitutional reform proposals initiated by the government. Is this really wise? Second, if for any reason one or more of the legislators fails to win in the by-election, what are we to make of this? Won't it be widely trumpeted as showing that the electorate does not support radical actions? Besides, even if all five legislators win re-election, will this necessarily be interpreted as support for a road map? In fact, it is entirely likely that all candidates will say that they support universal suffrage, a time table and road map. It is hard to make universal suffrage a sole issue of a campaign. Assuming that things go according to the pan-democrats' plan, and the chief executive and Beijing remain obdurate, what will be gained by having all 23 legislators resign? Those who voted for the pan-democrats expected them to work for four years. Will they be pleased to see their candidates refuse to serve out their full term? Moreover, the legislature to be elected in 2012 will in all likelihood have to deal with electoral methods in 2017- that is to say, they will have to determine the road map. If all the pan-democrats resign in 2011 and refrain from running in 2012, then who will look after the interests of the Hong Kong people? Having all 23 pan-democratic legislators resign from the 60-member legislature will certainly create an impact. But mass resignation is a political weapon so destructive that it should be used only if Hong Kong's survival were at stake. Besides, what is the next step after the mass resignation? There is no alternative but for other pro-democracy candidates to present themselves for election, and start the process all over again. Only this time, they will begin with a base of zero, having squandered all of their ammunition in a senseless gesture. Frank Ching is a Hong Kong-based writer and commentator. frank.ching@scmp.com
