Following the much-publicised unrest earlier in the year in Xinjiang , and accusations of Chinese state repression of Muslims there, it was only a matter of time before the al-Qaeda leadership made dramatic threats against China.
That time has come, and it should have caused genuine concern in Beijing that the threat has come directly from a senior al-Qaeda figure. Hong Kong leaders should also watch developments closely.
Last Friday, a video emerged featuring Abu Yahya al-Libi, a militant preacher, fighter and high-ranking al-Qaeda leader. He called for Xinjiang's Uygurs to 'prepare for jihad' against China, and declared: 'The state of atheism [communist China] is heading for its fall. It will face what befell the Russian bear' - a reference to the 1980s Soviet defeat by the Afghan mujahedeen.
It is the same tired, old rhetoric we have been hearing from al-Qaeda for more than a decade directed at more familiar enemies of radical Islamists. Yet, while such statements about China have been made before - by al-Qaeda affiliates and on Islamist web forums - this was the first from a senior figure. So, is this latest statement little more than al-Qaeda muscle-flexing? Or, is it a genuine call to arms for a concerted assault on China?
On the one hand, al-Qaeda has made hundreds of statements against Israel without ever attacking it (though it has attacked Jewish targets abroad). Many other states have remained untouched after being threatened in al-Qaeda pronouncements. In part, this is because, globally, al-Qaeda's ability to act has been severely limited in recent years and, beyond Iraq and Afghanistan, its impact remains low.
On the other hand, historically, we have seen a direct correlation between such statements and attacks based on the countries and targets they mention, and al-Qaeda increasingly influencing militants in Iraq and Africa.
In recent years, al-Qaeda has co-opted groups of previously limited influence in Iraq and North Africa, and what followed was a dramatic increase in attack frequency and potency. Can al-Qaeda do the same with groups in the midst of 10 million Muslims in Xinjiang, and more than 20 million Muslims in China as a whole?