Is China's rocket science all it's cracked up to be, experts ask
Given its potential to wipe out an aircraft carrier - for America a core projection of its power - no weapon under development in China exercises strategic imaginations in Washington quite like the anti-ship ballistic missile.
The US intelligence community, which is scrutinising China's military build-up ever more closely, knows less about the missile than any other aspect of the PLA's armoury. It throws up more questions than answers. Precisely how far has China's programme progressed? Would China ever really want to risk firing one, given the potential for disastrous miscalculation by its enemies?
Some recent media reports have suggested Beijing is close to completing the weapon. But a close reading of recent US intelligence and Congressional reports, official statements and academic studies shows considerable doubt remains about how soon a Chinese anti-ship ballistic missile will be ready, and whether it is feasible for China to build one.
A working anti-ship ballistic missile would put China in uncharted waters. While virtually all other weapons it is developing, from aircraft carriers to mobile launchers for nuclear weapons, represent technology used by other militaries, no other nation has developed a working anti-ship ballistic missile. The then-Soviet Union and the US were both eyeing such a weapon towards the end of the cold war, but both signed deals that stopped further work as part of arms control agreements.
China is not bound by any such agreement and apparently sees the weapon as a trump card in a so-called access-denial strategy that already encompasses ships, submarines and lower-flying cruise missiles.
If it succeeds, possession of such a missile could dramatically alter the stakes in the event of conflict between China and the US over Taiwan - a battle in which US aircraft carriers would normally be expected to play a pivotal role. It can be considered a powerful asymmetric weapon, providing a deterrent against the strengths of a larger opponent.