As we enter the second decade of the 21st century, the world of international business and finance is feeling better about itself than at any time for the past 21/2 years.
You wouldn't exactly say there is a mood of self-congratulation about. But there is a definite sense of relief in the air. Confidence is mounting that the global economy has avoided its worst-case scenario following the financial crisis of 2008.
Thanks to drastic emergency policy action by the US Federal Reserve, which promptly slashed interest rates and began printing money, and the Chinese government, which launched an unprecedented programme of economic stimulus, hopes are high that we have managed to avert the threat of a 1930s-style United States Depression or a 1990s-style Japanese lost decade.
Not everyone shares the optimism, however. Dozens of commentators have pointed out that last year's recovery in world stock markets, which saw America's benchmark S&P 500 Index bounce back by two-thirds from its March low, mirrors similar rebounds in earlier crises; rebounds that subsequently turned out to be temporary bear market rallies as markets ran out of steam and rolled over, plunging afresh to new lows.
And in terms of the underlying economics, there are also some disturbing similarities between the 2008 crisis and the bursting of Japan's bubble economy in the late 1980s.
According to Julian Jessop, the chief international economist at London-based research house Capital Economics, those similarities imply that the developed world may not be able to escape sinking into its own Japanese-style lost decade after all.
