John Moore-trained Irian's quiet, inoffensive barrier trial at Sha Tin yesterday was a firm reminder of the proximity of crunch time for the four-year-olds as attention shifts to the classic group.
Last year's Derby winner, Collection, was an exception in so many ways, making his local debut in mid-February, but history shows that form in January, particularly the back half of it, has been the pointer to classic success.
Another four of the last nine Derby winners made their local debuts in January and had posted at least one serious performance by the end of the month.
The Jockey Club published the first ranking of the four-year-olds on Monday, including the 42 Mercedes-Benz Hong Kong Derby first entries, and two related aspects stood out - the depth in terms of the handicapper's ratings and the question of whether some of those purchased with the Derby in mind will even get close to lining up in either that race or the Classic Mile and Derby Trial lead-ups.
For a stronger top to a Classic Mile group at this stage we can go back three years to Floral Pegasus, who boasted a rating of 120 before it and the top three in the entries all had figures over 112.
In the two runnings since, a 110 mark would have earned the number one saddlecloth and a mark in the mid- to high-80s saw the holder comfortably into the field.
Helene Mascot aside, trainer Tony Cruz has often built up a strong ratings foundation for his four-year-old classic horses such as Floral Pegasus, Lucky Owners and the like, who raced through the grades as three-year-olds and were competition hardened by the time they turned four.