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Denise Tsang

China has had its position as the world's No 1 exporter confirmed after Germany revealed its trade figures for last year.
The European nation said yesterday that exports slumped 18.4 per cent to Euro803.2 billion (US$1.1 trillion) for 2009, which compared with China's US$1.20 trillion. 
China's exports dropped 16 per cent last year.
The latest data settled the fierce debate that emerged in Europe after Xinhua trumpeted China's world leading position a month ago after comparing data from the first 11 months that showed the mainland's US$1.07 trillion worth of exports had surpassed Germany's US$1 trillion.
The figures underline China's soaring economic and political prominence on the international stage.
Economists and trade bodies widely believe China will remain the world's largest exporter in the coming decade. 
'It will only grow larger and larger,' Deutsche Bank chief economist Ma Jun  said of China's export sector yesterday. 'In 10 years, China's total export volume will be twice the size of the world's No2, no matter who the No2 is.'
The mainland's robust growth momentum could lead to at least a 12 per cent jump in exports annually in the next five years, compared with pre-global financial crisis growth of 25 per cent a year, he said.
Ma said strong production growth, estimated at 15 per cent annually, was a key factor fuelling China's market share.
Yi Xianrong,  a researcher at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, a top think-tank of the central government, said improved productivity would help propel exports,  though it was challenged by the thorny problem of trade protectionism. 
'Trade protectionism continues to bite,' Beijing-based Yi said. 'Still, the labour costs are cheaper than in many countries, which will help the country  take the lead position for the next 10 years.'
Some economists pointed out that the mainland's export sector, which is recovering slowly from the consumption downturn in the United States and Europe, faces other challenges such as international pressure on China to raise the yuan exchange rate and the mainland's efforts to upgrade industries.
Ma said the industrial upgrades would result in 'the factory of the world' churning out  cars, auto parts, medical equipment and ships instead of labour-intensive and low-value goods such as shoes, apparel and textiles.
The Federation of Hong Kong Industries deputy chairman, Stanley Lau Chin-ho,  said the combination of lower labour and land costs, a stable yuan regime, an established vertically integrated supply chain, infrastructure and logistics services in China meant the country would hold on to its 'factory of the world' title.
'Alternative manufacturing bases such as India and Vietnam [will] emerge, but they can't rival China  in the mid-to-near term,' he said.



Mainland takes title of No 1 exporter