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SCMP Reporter

Powerful earthquakes and ethnic tension in a remote region of Tibet  pose a threat to a controversial hydroelectric project on the most important river China shares with India, according to experts in the area's geology and population.
The construction of the Zangmu hydroelectric project, the biggest in Tibet, has attracted international attention after Beijing briefed Indian officials last week on the location and capacity of the project and the progress of construction work.
New Delhi fears damming the Yarlung Zangbo River, known as the Brahmaputra in India, could harm downstream flows in one of Asia's most economically vital waterways.
The Zangmu Dam is the first of five planned for the 100-kilometre Jiacha Canyon southeast of Lhasa , the regional capital, but no timetable has been given for the completion of the dam or the project.
When the dams are finished, three will be higher in elevation than the Zangmu Dam, and one lower.
Yang Yong , an independent geologist based in Sichuan  who recently returned from a trek to the Jiacha Canyon in Sangri and Jiacha counties, said he was surprised by the decision to build dams there.
'When I first saw the canyon, it took my breath away,' Yang said. 'Huge mountains suddenly surged from a piece of flat land, forming two almost vertical walls to the horizon. This is fresh evidence of violent  geological movement. I can't imagine a more dangerous spot to build dams.
'The Jiacha Canyon sits right above an enormous, active fault. It is exactly where the tectonic plates of India and  Eurasia meet.' 
These seismic challenges will test China's energy ambitions in Tibet. At a time when the central government is turning to Tibet's plentiful hydroelectric resources to satisfy the increasing demand for electric power, the success or failure of the Zangmu Dam would have a significant impact on the pace of hydroelectric development in the region, experts say. 
'The canyon has, no doubt, trapped an enormous amount of hydroelectric resources. From the point of view of energy exploitation, it is a dam paradise,' Yang said.
'But the site is not safe. Huge earthquakes have struck the region in recent history. Landslides occur often. Such natural disasters not only threaten the safety of the dam - they could be intensified or even created by the dam, which, with its large water supply, could change the delicate geological balance of a large region.'
Some seismologists warn that China may have entered a period of more frequent seismic activity, citing the magnitude-8 earthquake centred in Sichuan  in May 2008, which killed nearly 88,000 people, and a 7.1-magnitude quake two weeks ago centred in Yushu  prefecture, Qinghai , which killed more than 2,220. 
In a paper written last year, Professor Wang Zhengzhang  of Tibet University's Tibet Agricultural and Animal Husbandry College wrote that the curtain for a massive build-up of hydroelectric stations in Tibet had risen, and the peak in construction projects would appear in about 2020, if not sooner.
But the existing quake-resistant design might not withstand mega-earthquakes of the type that shatter the area frequently, he wrote. Builders of dams in Tibet must implement the world's toughest standards, and that could be both technologically and economically challenging.
Even if the dams did withstand the quakes, other geological disasters, such as landslides, could wipe a multibillion-yuan project off the map overnight, Wang said. When a quake lake on the river collapsed in 2000, it released over 120,000 cubic metres of water per second, destroying roads, bridges, villages and towns.  
And the five hydroelectric dams in the Jiacha Canyon are only part of a more extensive plan. The central government intends to build many more dams across the Yarlung Zangbo River. The largest of them will be in the Yarlung Zangbo Canyon, one of the longest and deepest canyons in the world, and will have a capacity of more than 40,000 megawatts - more than twice the maximum capacity of the Three Gorges Dam.
Professor Xu Damao , a member of the Chinese Academy of Engineering, ranked big earthquakes as the top challenge to the Yarlung Zangbo Canyon project in a paper he wrote in 2007. To minimise the risk, he proposed digging an enormous 39-kilometre-long channel to divert water and reduce the pressure on the dam - which he said would cost more than 6 billion yuan (HK$6.83 billion) and no doubt test engineering technology to the limit.
Veterans of the region also expect native Tibetans to oppose the hydroelectric projects. 
Flat and fertile Shannan district lies to the west of the Jiacha Canyon. It is the wealthiest region in Tibet and the place where Tibetan culture originated, according to Yang. Construction of a large dam in the canyon would force some native Tibetan communities to move from the land where they have lived for centuries.
'The Yarlung Zangbo River is an important river in Tibetan culture. Building dams across it may cause ethnic conflicts. In these sensitive times, a spark could lead to a fire,' Yang said. Yan Zhiyong , the general manager of the China Hydropower Engineering Consultancy, also cautioned that ethnic Tibetans could be an issue. He told the China Energy News: 'Hydroelectric construction must live harmoniously with the local society.' 
But ethnic Tibetan Professor Tanzen Lhundup,  the deputy director of the Institute of Sociology and Economics at the Chinese Centre for Tibetan Studies, said conflict was unlikely, because the traditional thinking of residents would give way to a greater desire for economic development.
The shortage of electricity was the biggest obstacle to development in Tibet today, he said. Even the residents of Lhasa endure electricity rationing almost every year. The situation is worse in more remote areas.
'Just like any other people on this planet, Tibetans want to have televisions, washing machines and microwave ovens,' Tanzen Lhundup said.
As for forced migration, he said he had visited the canyon several times and found few people living there.
'Even if a small number of people have to migrate, they will receive a respectable amount of compensation,' Tanzen Lhundup said. 'That's because - unlike the resettlement for the Three Gorges Dam, which involved millions of people - the Jiacha project will affect only a few thousand, if not hundred, residents.'
He said: 'Tibet will be more habitable with carefully planned and built hydropower plants.'



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Tibet

Tibet dam project faces risk of big earthquakes