How long can the increasingly unpopular Yukio Hatoyama remain as Japan's prime minister, and will the shadowy kingmaker Ichiro Ozawa finally come into the light and become the new shogun? These are the questions preoccupying Japan's chattering classes after Hatoyama's disastrous visit to Okinawa this week to tell the people that he was reneging on his promise to move a US military base from the islands.
Hatoyama visited Okinawa - for the first time since becoming prime minister - to tell the governor and leading officials that he could not keep his promise to move away all of the Futenma US marine base.
But he also seems determined to spread his unpopularity around far and wide. He is still hoping to send 1,000 of the US marines from Futenma to Tokunoshima, another island in the south of Japan. Tokunoshima mayors and 80 per cent of the people are already up in arms to demonstrate that they don't want the marines there.
As evidence of his disconnection from reality, Hatoyama even accepted an unnamed White House official's claim that he was 'increasingly loopy', translating the word into Japanese as 'foolish'.
Only eight months ago, Hatoyama and his Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) swept to power ending more than half a century of almost unbroken rule by the Liberal Democratic Party. He won popularity ratings of more than 70 per cent as the Japanese people welcomed a new face. Today, his popularity has plummeted to 20 per cent, and 60 per cent of Japanese think he should resign if he cannot meet his own May 31 deadline for sorting out the relocation of the base.
Japan has about 47,000 American troops on its soil as part of the security treaty between the two countries. In spite of rising discontent, it has been a useful alliance for both sides. It allows Washington to maintain a strong presence in Asia and keep troops close to potential flashpoints the Korean Peninsula and Taiwan Strait, with much of the bill paid by Tokyo. It allows Japan the shelter of the US nuclear umbrella, and staying out of nuclear and military arms races.