No matter how the Civic Party and League of Social Democrats - the instigators of the so-called referendum - express it, there is no denying that the outcome of the Legislative Council by-elections failed to match expectations.
In retrospect, the central government adopted a winning strategy by branding the by-elections unconstitutional and illegal from the outset. At first the pro-establishment forces were excited about running, hoping to snatch seats from the pan-democrats. They made a U-turn only after Beijing gave a clear signal that the entire process should be boycotted. Because of the absence of opponents on the election battleground, the so-called referendum drew an unenthusiastic response from the public.
Having a voter turnout far below the 50 per cent threshold required in order to call the 'referendum' a success came as no surprise at all. But the very low, 17.1 per cent, turnout rate must have been caused by the pan-democrats' failure to present a united front in the run-up to the polls. The fatal problem was that the Democratic Party, which represents mainstream democrats, openly refused to take part.
On the eve of the by-elections, Chief Executive Donald Tsang Yam-kuen said that, after careful consideration, he and all members of his political team would boycott the event because it was unnecessary and a waste of public money. Some criticised that as awkwardly sneaky. But to say that it put pressure on civil servants trying to decide whether to vote - and that it dampened voter turnout - was not only non-factual but also exaggerated Tsang's influence.
He is the product of a small-circle election. Having been appointed by Beijing, politically he cannot refuse to follow central government policy. But he also has to implement policies laid down by the law and follow through with them. In this case, the government was duty-bound to hold the by-elections - and obligated to stay away from them. I don't expect many to sympathise with the administration, but they should understand that the government is caught between a rock and a hard place.
It's unrealistic to say that Tsang's boycott influenced the outcome. If he really had the power to sway public opinion, he would have won people over long ago to support his constitutional reform proposal.