'The crackdown further discredits his government and him as prime minister,' Pavin Chachavalpongpun, a fellow at the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies in Singapore, who is a native Thai, said. 'I can't see how he can prolong his stay in power. How is he going to begin the process of reconciliation, as he said? Who is he going to reconcile with?'

Indeed, moderate leaders of the anti-government United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship, better known as the 'red shirts', are in jail. It is unlikely Abhisit will reach out to its hard-line elements - whose refusal to accept an offer of new elections on November 14 triggered the crackdown - or their overall leader, self-exiled former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra.

Thitinan Pongsudhirak, the director of the Institute of Security and International Studies at Chulalongkorn University, said the government had all of last year to reach out to the 'red shirts', mainly consisting of rural poor in the north and northeast, and the working classes, but failed.

'They have become a principal party to this conflict,' he said. 'It is difficult for the reconciliation process to make headway with the compromised and tainted prime minister presiding.'

With Bangkok and 23 provinces still under curfew until today and the northern provinces teetering on the brink of armed revolt, it may not seem the right time to change leaders. But Abhisit came to power as a result of secretive wheeling and dealing, and according to analysts, it is likely how he will leave.

'It remains to be seen how long it takes his backers to find another solution,' said Federico Ferrara, a political science professor at the National University of Singapore. 'Some are saying that he ... could be gone as early as this week. But there are perhaps problems.'

It is no secret who Abhisit's supporters are: the army and the palace. There is also his Democrat Party and its coalition partners. Amid the countless scenarios ranging from Abhisit resigning to being forced out, Ferrara said it was unlikely the government would change before the next round of promotions in the armed forces in September. The military has played a major role in politics since ousting Thaksin in a coup in 2006.

'When it switches from violence to reconciliation, he will be jettisoned, but I don't know if it will take one week, a couple of months, or six months,' Ferrara said of Abhisit. 'Maybe he would shepherd the country through September, when there's a new military leadership selected by the government; or at least not dissolve parliament before then.'

On Friday, Abhisit said in a brief televised address that order had been restored nationwide, and promised a five-point reconciliation plan and an investigation into the protests and crackdown.

'We will continue to move quickly to restore normality, and we recognise that as we move ahead that there are huge challenges ahead of us, particularly the challenge of overcoming the divisions that have occurred in this country,' he said.

Regardless of how it plays out, Abhisit's options look bleak. The 'red shirts' are furious with what they see as a plot by the Bangkok elite, military and royalists to maintain their rule by twice overturning election victories by pro-poor parties linked to Thaksin.

And as much as he may have tried, Abhisit came off as yet another elitist snob. How did it all go wrong for a man named as one of the 100 global leaders for tomorrow by the World Economic Forum in 1992 and an up-and-coming leader for Asia by Time magazine in 1997?

The answer may lie in Abhisit's decision to seek the position in the first place in 2008. He was opposition leader when the Constitutional Court removed prime minister Samak Sundaravej, a Thaksin ally, for 'vested interests' because he received a salary from hosting a cooking show while in office. Samak was replaced by Somchai Wongsawat, Thaksin's brother-in-law, who was targeted by 'yellow shirt' protesters fronting the revered monarchy.

On December 2, 2008, the Constitutional Court banned three political parties in the ruling coalition for election fraud in 2007, including the Thaksin-aligned People's Power Party. Abhisit's Democrats brought aboard enough defectors from the government parties to select him prime minister.

But analysts said Abhisit might have risen too soon and should have waited for a more opportune time down the road. While he is the head of the Democrats, he was only 44, lacked leadership experience, was media shy and even uncomfortable speaking in public.

Hailing from an old and well-connected Thai-Chinese family, Abhisit is the son of politically active doctors.

Married with two children, he was born in Newcastle, England. He was educated at Eton, then Oxford, credentials that are unlikely to curry favour with the 'red shirts'.

It remains unknown whether he personally ordered last week's crackdown on the 'red shirts', or if he was bullied by the army after the movement's hardliners rejected a settlement deal between moderate protest leaders and the government. Some military officials openly called for force, and were joined privately by members of the Privy Council, which advises the king.

Ferrara said that while the country was likely to never know how the decision to use force was made, Abhisit did seem inclined to remove the protesters, and is now the target of a public backlash.

'Maybe he accepted the role of falling on his sword and carried out [the military operation]. And that would be his service to the crown,' he said.

Pavin said: 'It seems that he owes so many people so many favours, and has to return those favours. I wouldn't use the term puppet or proxy, but it's like he's been hired to do a job, to serve the interests of many hungry men.'