They say the global climate is warming, but climate change has nothing on political change.
Less than two years ago, the alternative energy sector looked wonderfully promising. Panicked governments were in a Keynesian frenzy to throw as much money as possible at the world's collapsing economies - but of course they tried their best to stimulate the 'good' sectors. And what could be better than 'green' companies that clean the air, save us all from global warming, and even dilute the power of those thuggish oil-producing nations?
Common sense would indicate that this trend is at major risk of changing. In the United States the growing power of the 'tea party' is leading to a backlash against government spending, and in Europe the cost of the Greek bailout is forcing the EU to make members finally adhere to agreed debt ratios.
Basically, the West is broke. Governments are facing a scenario where they will be pushing back retirement ages, cutting benefits for teachers and civil servants, squeezing pension plans, and paring down many popular public programmes.
Who can expect that the subsidies for green programmes will escape unscathed?
Of course, the world still needs to at least partially meet its climate-change goals. So what is the likely future? Well, here is a very possible scenario for a green future: 1) the 'cheaper' green technologies will dominate; and 2) Asia, whose governments are not bankrupt and whose pollution problems are greater, will dominate clean-energy investment.
