Then-president Jiang Zemin was probably right when he said Hong Kong people were 'too simple, sometimes naive'. Yes, I was simple to have ever harboured a glimmer of hope in Donald Tsang Yam-kuen. Back in 2005, I wrote that Beijing's choice of Tsang was probably best for Hong Kong after the early resignation of Tung Chee-hwa, the first chief executive under Chinese rule.
But I wasn't so naive when I also suggested that Tsang should remember that opinion polls were favourable to Tung at the beginning, but public support quickly evaporated. Indeed, after five years in office, Tsang's popularity has also plummeted. A poll by the Chinese University of Hong Kong, following the passage of the constitutional reform package, found that Tsang had failed to attain the pass mark of 50 twice in succession, with those surveyed most recently giving him only 49.6 marks for his performance. A poll last month by the University of Hong Kong reported that his disapproval rating had exceeded 50 per cent twice in a row.
With two more years in office, Tsang is already being described as a lame duck. With the passage of the reform package, attention will increasingly focus on the race to be the next chief executive.
Tsang's unpopularity is entirely of his own making. Apart from his lack of a sense of history - in relating the Cultural Revolution to 'extreme democracy' - there is also his top-down approach reminiscent of the way Chinese emperors treated their subjects. Unlike Premier Wen Jiabao , who wants Chinese people to live with 'more happiness and more respect', Tsang has no respect for the people. He has sided with property developers and other special interests, but could have done much more for the underprivileged.
Beijing's immediate concern is that Hong Kong remains stable, so it cannot be a base for foreign subversion. The recent ice-breaking meetings between the central government's liaison office and pan-democrats - including office bearers of the Hong Kong Alliance in Support of Patriotic Democratic Movements in China, a group that is banned on the mainland - shows the Communist Party's mastery of the art of united-front tactics: exploit contradictions to win over the majority and undermine the opposition.
Beijing's approval of the Democratic Party's 'one person, two votes' proposal for the five new district council functional constituency seats not only won over the Democratic Party, it has also split its opponents by precipitating an internecine war of words among the pan-democrats, with the Democratic Party now being attacked for betraying democracy.
The direct dialogue between Beijing's people and the Democrats is a good thing, but there is a downside. The way the liaison office intervened in a matter under the purview of the Hong Kong government crosses the boundary and sets a dangerous precedent. It tramples on Hong Kong's autonomy, and thereby international confidence in the city.