THIS is the most bullish forecast yet. The Hang Seng Index could go to zero.
We've paraphrased slightly, but Dr Marc Faber has really surpassed himself this time with his latest Boom, Gloom and Doom Report.
Marc's shown that real Doctors of Doom have to go further than this stuff about ''healthy correction'' and ''not about to go for a strong run'' that's coming out of some dismal local brokerages.
He says: ''It is possible that stocks have made milestone highs in the 1989-1994 period, and that for the next several years they may perform poorly.'' And by a ''milestone high'' he means events like the top of the silver boom in 1980 when some big speculators who wanted to control the market leveraged heavily to buy silver at US$50 an ounce. Today it's about $5.
It's not possible to capture his full thoughts in this limited space, but we must pass on the following: ''In fact, if I was asked to choose one stock market which has the potential to go to zero (don't laugh, all stock exchanges in countries which became communist went essentially to zero, and without America the best performing market of the 1970s, Kuwait, would also be at zero) then I would not hesitate to pick Hong Kong.'' ''I am not suggesting it will happen, but of all the markets I follow in the world, Hong Kong certainly has the best potential to do so.'' He also quotes a scholarly Kuwaiti friend who said that Hong Kong today reminded him of Kuwait during the oil boom of the 1970s, right down to the arrogance of the inhabitants.
Marc says that if the milestone high has been reached, then commodities may be the best investment on offer.