Pity the World Health Organisation. Only a few days after it announced that the H1N1 swine flu had 'largely run its course' worldwide, reports of a superbug gene - NDM-1 - prompted a new outbreak of fear. Cases were reported in Hong Kong and Asian nations including India and Pakistan, while the superbug is becoming a global health threat to North America, Australia and Europe.
NDM-1's resistance to antibiotics gives it the potential to be a serious worldwide public health problem. As always, Asia is at risk due to its high population density, increasing migration and regional travel, and underdeveloped health care systems.
Haven't we heard all this before? The WHO overreacted in the case of swine flu, avian flu and a variety of other diseases. The past two decades have seen more than 30 outbreaks of new pandemic diseases, and about one-third of those started in Asia. With the media repeatedly warning that every new disease could be a massive global killer, it's easy to dismiss the latest outbreak, whether it's swine flu or a superbug.
That would be a mistake. Recent estimates agree that a pandemic or epidemic event over a year could reduce global gross domestic product by more than 2.5 per cent (US$3 trillion approximately). Without tough action, it's a question of when, not if, a pandemic causes death on a scale that makes severe acute respiratory syndrome look mild.
A stronger government role and better business involvement should be the key for pandemic preparedness in Asia. While some people are complaining that the danger of many viruses was always exaggerated by the WHO, pandemics, especially flu viruses such as swine flu and avian flu, are notoriously unpredictable and constantly changing. Asia must develop a comprehensive surveillance system and sufficient health care infrastructure.
Asia can improve in these three areas: First, due to the high cost of treatment for many pandemic diseases (drugs and vaccines) and growing populations, Asia is challenged by inadequate health care financing and resources. It needs more in the long term. The United States devoted 19.3 per cent of government resources to health care in 2006, considerably more than China, India and Indonesia did - at 9.9 per cent, 3.4 per cent and 6.2 per cent respectively. Per capita, the three Asian countries have fewer than one-fifth of the physicians, nurses and hospital beds that the US has. Because of a shortage of nurses, health care equipment and hospital beds, Hong Kong and mainland China were ill-prepared for the outbreak of Sars in 2003, which led to a failure to even protect nurses and paramedics.
Second, research shows that Asian countries are largely ineffective in crafting pandemic and epidemic management plans that go beyond basic WHO recommendations. National vaccination strategies and continuity plans for public services are essential when pandemics strike. Last year, mainland China's attempt to introduce a swine flu vaccine ran into delays because it failed to allay public concerns over the vaccine's safety and effectiveness.