Pingtan is one of the 'island projects' being launched as offshoots of the mainland's original special economic zones - Shenzhen, Shantou and Zhuhai in Guangdong ; Xiamen in Fujian ; and all of Hainan province - which were established in 1980 by leader Deng Xiaoping for capitalist reforms.

Although President Hu Jintao hailed those original SEZs as 'a miracle of industrialisation in the history of the world' at their 30th anniversary celebration this month in Shenzhen, criticisms have arisen that they are losing their lustre. Provincial governors attending the annual Pan-Pearl River Delta Forum in Fuzhou, Fujian, at the end of last month - many at their wits' end over new economic development models - expressed hope that these projects could become test tubes for economic growth.

Among the other projects, Hengqin Island in Zhuhai will focus on co-operation with Macau; Qianhai in Shenzhen will co-operate with Hong Kong; and Yangpu Island in Hainan will work with Southeast Asian countries.

The Pingtan project is probably the most ambitious. Drive southeast for two hours from Fuzhou and ferry across interior waters, and you'll reach the 371 square kilometre island, the fifth-largest in China. It takes only three hours by boat across the Taiwan Strait to Hsinchu.

Under the authorities' aggressive development plans, Pingtan has now been included in the blueprint of the Beijing-Fuzhou-Taiwan high-speed railway and the Beijing-Fuzhou Expressway. It includes infrastructure, such as a 1 billion yuan (HK$1.14 billion) bridge connecting the island with nearby Fuqing , a 100-kilometre ring road to encircle the island and even a new airport.

The investment in infrastructure could reach 20 billion yuan within three years, about 66 times the island's annual revenue of 300 million yuan in 2008.

A similar scenario is taking place in other provinces amid doubts over whether the 'island dreams' can succeed when, in some cases, the special economic zone that is spawning it did not. Guangdong has vowed to spend 72.6 billion yuan to transform sleepy Hengqin, off Macau, from a bleak outpost with a gross domestic product of just 128 million yuan in 2008 into a key base for cross-delta co-operation.

A new town is expected to be built on the 86 square kilometre island, with a theme park, golf courses, lavish shopping malls, a business district and everything that modern mainland life requires, targeting a GDP of 56 billion yuan by 2020.

Liu Jia , Communist Party secretary of the Hengqin New Zone, speaks in superlatives about the island's prospects once the Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macau bridge is finished in 2015. Hengqin now enjoys sub-provincial administrative status, joining the ranks of the Pudong New Area in Shanghai and the Binhai New Area in Tianjin .

Shenzhen targets an even more astonishing economic output in Qianhai, which will reach 150 billion yuan in 2020 according to Mayor Xu Qin. The city will invest 40 billion yuan to transform the area into a cross-border co-operation base with Hong Kong, focusing on the modern financial industry, logistics, technology, information technology and cultural industries, according to a blueprint endorsed by the State Council last month.

But many economic analysts aren't as optimistic as the officials.

Chang Jung-feng, a research director from the Chung-Hua Institution for Economic Research in Taipei, criticised mainland governors for continuing to think about a centrally planned economy three decades after the mainland's capitalistic reforms began.

'Infrastructure in both Pingtan and Hengqin greatly falls short of what modern industries demand, and they're short of water and electricity supply,' Chang said. 'Neither of them has the necessary industrial chains, either [to provide components and logistics].

'Developing Pingtan Island is more like a fantasy. I don't think entrepreneurs will invest there simply because it's the nearest mainland island to Taiwan. If my business opportunities are in Beijing, I can fly directly to the city without travelling to Pingtan by the Beijing-Fuzhou-Taiwan high-speed train.'

Day Jaw-yang, a research director at the Taiwan Research Institute, said he didn't believe Taiwan, Hong Kong and Macau entrepreneurs who already have a mature strategy on the mainland would relocate their businesses to the islands even after decades of development.

'Mainland authorities don't have a clear idea of what they want to drive the islands towards,' he said. 'Simply put, the goal of 'economic achievement' isn't enough; they should understand their target customers and what kind of strategy can attract these people.'

Cheng Jiansan , a Guangzhou researcher who specialises in the Pearl River Delta region's economic development at the Guangdong Academy of Social Sciences, was neutral on the islands' future.

He said the governors' ambitions would need to go through the test of the marketplace, though favourable policies are usually the prerequisite to exploiting such projects in China.

'It's too early to judge whether these island dreams can achieve success,' Cheng said. 'It depends on the island governments' governance and whether they can attract profitable investment. Of course, we have seen too many failed cases. The GDP in Zhuhai, where Hengqin is located, ranked bottom in Guangdong three decades after it was selected as one of the country's first special economic zones by Deng Xiaoping.

'But the Binhai New Area in Tianjin has had rapid development in recent years.'

Hsieh, of the Taiwan Competitiveness Forum, emphasised the islands' political functions beyond their simple economic output.

'Economic output from those islands will surely be ineffective at the initial stage given the huge investment on infrastructure,' Hsieh said. 'But we shouldn't neglect the islands' political functions. Pingtan Island, which is only 126 kilometres away from Taiwan, used to be the place for mainland military manoeuvres to threaten Taiwan before 1996. But it now welcomes Taiwanese and their investment.

'To some extent, the mainland government is stretching its influence to the Pacific Ocean through these islands.'

The islands are expected to pilot their co-operation projects in customs, financial and revenue systems and land management.

As part of the Hengqin project, one innovation in customs arrangements is expected to allow students and staff from the University of Macau to commute to a new one-square-kilometre campus on the island via a tunnel without going through immigration checkpoints.

Mainland media have reported that the Qianhai area in Shenzhen is expected to draw lessons from Hong Kong's legal and taxation systems.

Pingtan authorities say they are also considering a provision to allow a vehicle registered in Taiwan to drive on the island under a three-month temporary licence.

A major piece of the puzzle in the Pingtan project - the 1 billion yuan bridge connecting the island with nearby Fuqing - was finally finished on Wednesday after 19 years from the start of planning. The 5-kilometre bridge means the driving time from Fuzhou to Pingtan will be shortened to 80 minutes.

Ambitious plan

Investment in Pingtan over three years could include a bridge, a ring road and an airport, totalling in billions of yuan: 20b yuan

Pie in the sky?

Beijing has grand plans for Pingtan, which is the fifth-largest island in China

Area: 371 sq km

Population: 400,000

Industry: Agriculture and fisheries

GDP: 300 million yuan in 2008

Annual revenue: 300 million yuan in 2008

Investment to be spent in three years 20 billion yuan