Hong Kong's declining birth rate means a continued drop in the student population and an acute shortage of students entering secondary schools. The government is adding fuel to the fire because of its shortsightedness in education policy and unwillingness to invest in nurturing the next generation.
According to Education Bureau statistics, the annual intake of first-year secondary students is expected to slide to 53,900 in 2016 - a drop of nearly 30 per cent from 75,400 last year. That means a loss of 630 classes at the current average of 34 students per class. This could affect 126 secondary schools that each has an annual intake of five classes of first-year secondary students. If we exclude students at international schools, private colleges and those run by the English Schools Foundation, the number of Form One students could be even lower than government estimates.
This year, 11 secondary schools with too few students were spared the axe because the government put its 'kill-school' strategy on hold for one year. But schools that fail to enrol the minimum of 61 students for their secondary classes will eventually be forced to close. We shouldn't underestimate this problem - it is a time bomb threatening to shake the foundations of our education system.
Many educators believe the government should take this opportunity to implement 'small-class teaching'. Reducing class sizes would save many secondary schools from being axed, improve the quality of education and save teachers' jobs.
This win-win solution would help optimise resources and avoid conflicts with educators. Education is an investment in human capital, and the level of such investment helps to determine the level of economic growth and competitiveness of a country or city.
Small-class teaching can improve the quality of learning by allowing teachers more time to address the individual needs of students. It will not strain existing resources, as alleged by some critics. All it requires is a reallocation of existing resources.
The government should enable underenrolled schools to move to smaller classes. The administration needs to get smarter about making the most of its resources.