Hong Kong is ageing much faster than official estimates and needs to adjust quickly, says Paul Yip Siu-fai. The only way forward is to develop a viable population policy, the University of Hong Kong professor and government adviser says.
However, another government insider admits there is little incentive for Chief Executive Donald Tsang Yam-kuen to do much about the problem in his remaining two years in office.
'It may not be wise for the current administration to address such a long-term problem, which would straddle the next administration,' the unnamed official, familiar with government policy on the issue, said.
The problem will start worsening from 2012, according to Yip's new study; and by 2036, if nothing is done, every two working people may have to support three inactive ones. But the coming policy address is not expected to contain any significant measures to address the problem.
The Census and Statistics Department's latest projections indicate the dependency ratio - the number of people aged 65 and over per 1,000 people aged 15 to 64 - will almost double from 337 last year to 625 by 2039. This means 1,000 workers would have to support 625 people who are retired or unemployed.
But Yip's study, which takes into account actual employment status instead of just age, paints a far grimmer picture. It shows that by 2036, 1,000 economically productive people would have to support 1,500 inactive ones. He said the less dramatic government figures are misleading.
'It is true that the chief executive has only two years left in his job. But Hong Kong people are living here forever,' Yip said. He accused the government of being uncommitted to the city's long-term development, and said its inaction would have a detrimental effect on the city's economy and other social issues.