Probability Theory
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Angland and Mosse worth a throw of the dice

Tonight's Jockey Challenge promises to be an absolute corker and, while usual favourites Douglas Whyte, Darren Beadman and Brett Prebble all have good claims, none boast an outstanding book, which assures them of victory in the point-score event.

This leaves the door open for an outsider to chime in with a few lucky breaks at the city track, and Gerald Mosse and Tye Angland have a chance at filling that role at odds of more than 20-1.

Whyte heads the fixed-odds market at $3.60, with Beadman ($5) and Prebble ($6.50) on the next line of betting. The Jockey Club odds reflect the competitiveness of the competition.

While a case can be made that each of these three are good value, a lack of depth throughout their respective cards bring the top guns back to the field and makes it easier for an outsider to triumph.

Mosse has five rides but, at $30 and with two genuine winning chances, he might be able to out-score his more favoured counterparts if things fall his way.

Angland has six mounts, is riding as well as any of his more experienced rivals and was quoted at $22 - good odds, given the strength of his final three mounts, Star Of Fame, Friendly Gains and Fun Rider.


Punters can back both Angland and Mosse to beat the favourites and still look forward to a hefty payout if one salutes, with the likelihood that two winners will be enough for any rider to take the title.