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SCMP Reporter

CONTINUED growth in cruise passenger volumes will fund an ever-expanding world cruise fleet, according to a study by UK-based Ocean Shipping Consultants.

  The scale of growth will vary significantly across individual markets, however, demand expansion and large-scale replacement of older tonnage will fund continued overall fleet growth.

  It says cruise demand will continue to be determined by a many factors, including wider macroeconomic considerations, together with specific cruise industry factors.

  Demand will continue to be largely supply-led and, apart from tonnage levels, a number of key areas will determine the rate of growth.

  These will vary between individual markets, with different factors to dictate the scale and pace of growth of cruises in Japan and the US.

  For the North American market - which dominates the world cruise industry - an increasingly young cruise passenger profile is anticipated, with greater numbers of families.

  Middle-income earners also are likely to increase in significance.

  The study says the main feature of recent passenger volume development has been the scale and continuity of annual expansion.

  Passenger volumes have increased annually at a rate of between one and 15 per cent.

  Total embarkations on multi-day cruises have increased from 1.4 million in 1980 to 3.6 million in 1990 and to 4.5 million last year, with recent growth averaging nine per cent a year.

  From the 1993 level, the total is expected to rise to almost six million by 1997, and to over seven million by 2000.

  Continued growth in the subsequent half-decade will see the annual total reach 9.4 million by 2005.

  Different rates of expansion are projected for Japan, other Southeast Asian countries, Britain, Germany, France, Italy, and other European countries.

  For world cruise passenger volumes, from a total of 5.3 million passengers last year, the aggregate is expected to top six million by next year, with longer-term growth involving annual levels of more than 8.5 million by 2000 and 11.5 million by 2005.

  Total expansion is expected to be about 118 per cent, with total demand growth of over 60 per cent for the remainder of the 1990s.

 The dominance of the North American market will continue to be the key feature, but its share of the world total is set to decline from around 85 per cent to 81 per cent.

  The total world fleet deployed on multi-day cruises is 244 vessels each with a passenger capacity of more than 100, and an additional 32 vessels with capacity of less than 100 passengers.

  Total berth capacity is about 176,000, with the 500 to 1,000 passenger category accounting for 40 per cent of the total with a further 23 per cent accounted for by the 1,000-1,500 berth sector.

  Larger vessels account for a further 21 per cent.

  Average annual new vessel delivery numbers were betweem four and five for the 1980-87 period, and between 12 and 13 for 1988-92.

  In all, five newbuildings were delivered last year, while a recent surge in orders set to see further growth in the annual level.

  The 1,500-passenger sector accounts for 49 per cent of all new berths delivered over 1990-92, when the sector doubled in size.

  There is a strong and direct correlation between vessel size and average age, the study said.

  The average age of the 2,000 berth class is less than eight years - against the 22-year-old average of the 100-berth sector.

        The total order book comprises 21 vessels with a combined aggregate berth capacity of 35,211.

  Of this total capacity, 46 per cent consists of 2,000 berth vessels, with 1,500-2,000 berth ships accounting for a further 36.5 per cent.

  For the fleet as a whole, the capacity on order represents 20 per cent of existing capacity, with this level of significance varying widely for individual vessel size categories.

  Annual minimum extra capacity requirements of 7,000 berths in 1994, rising to 10,000 berths in 1999 and over 12,000 berths for the final years of the study period, are implied by the demand forecasts.

  These are in line with the order book for 1996-97, with required average annual extra capacity of 10,500 projected for 1998-2001, and 12,400 for 2002-05.

  These compare with the 5,000 average for 1986-89, 10,000 average for the early 1990s, and a similar average expected for 1994-97.

  These projections apply to extra fleet requirements only, and do not include the volume of vessels likely to be withdrawn from multi-day cruising.



Cruise fleet expands