ADDING to the debate surrounding the outlook for Hong Kong's economy and its stock market, SG Warburg Securities has fired a salvo of economic data to support its 10,000-point year-end forecast for the Hang Seng Index.
Last week, the market heard Jardine Fleming describe Hong Kong stocks as ''running on empty''. This has stirred a few in the securities industry to spring to the territory's defence, including Baring Securities last week.
When Warburg first came out with its 10,000 forecast, it was taken as a bearish stance, at a time when the index had hit record highs surpassing 12,000.
With the growing doom and gloom towards Hong Kong, the Warburg perspective seems like something akin to a bull's-eye view.
Economist Enzio von Pfeil suggests six per cent growth in gross domestic product (GDP) this year is more likely than the preferred five per cent.
He says that much is being made of Hong Kong's reliance on China trade. Many economists and strategists have downgraded the territory on the back of the apparently worsening economic outlook for China. And freight movement and industrial production indicators lend support to this.
