PETER Churchouse has got it wrong. The Hong Kong office market is not yet about to U-turn as Morgan Stanley Asia's property guru predicts, according to his counterpart and friendly rival at HG Asia, Michael Leary. HG Asia reckons office rental growth still has 12 to 15 months more in it and that capital values also have room to manoeuvre upwards for some time yet. Having seen rentals rise 88 per cent since 1991 and prices 225 per cent, Mr Churchouse argues that the office market cycle is close to a peak. And with new supply expected to significantly increase over the next few years, values are likely to fall. Office values will slide 45 per cent and rentals 20 per cent by 1998, according to the Morgan Stanley school of thought. But in a new report, Mr Leary counters by saying he does not think there will be anything like as much new supply coming on stream in Central next year as the 5.6 million sq ft Mr Churchouse predicts. Of the four major office developments under development in core Central, Mr Leary says only Li Po Chun Chambers will be completed by mid-1997. And, assuming there is an announcement appointing a developer for the Central reclamation by February next year and site works start immediately, he believes there is slim chance of seeing the completed product reach the market by 1997. Furthermore, while there are no confirmed details regarding the extent and make-up of the development, Mr Leary has heard rumours that less than two-fifths of the 1.6 million sq ft in gross floor area will be office space. Regarding the fear of 16 million to 30 million sq ft of new-style industrial/office space swamping the market in more decentralised districts, Mr Leary believes Morgan Stanley is misinformed. He does not envisage completions before 1996, at the earliest. Mr Churchouse argues that knock-on effects of the slowdown in China's economy will quell demand for office space. Mr Leary points to the Census and Statistics Department's working group on projections estimation, which is that in the four years to 1996, more than 200,000 new jobs in the trading, finance and business services industry will have been created. If Mr Leary is right and Mr Churchouse wrong, then Morgan Stanley's recommendation to sell off property investment stocks is off track. Having seen property stocks dip in the past few days, does that mean there is a buying opportunity in the offing?