AN adviser to the Government on its proposed pension scheme has called for an urgent, thorough analysis of how the scheme would fare under the worst situation of dwindling workers and soaring payouts. ''To work out the worst situations is urgently needed . . . to clarify some of the worries of the people,'' Henry Mok Tai-kee, senior lecturer in applied social studies at Hong Kong Polytechnic, said yesterday. He was speaking at a social service needs forum organised by the Government's Central Policy Unit and the polytechnic, Hong Kong University, the Chinese University and City Polytechnic. The Deputy Secretary for Education and Manpower, Lam Woon-kwong, pledged to get the Government's consultant for the scheme, Wyatt Co, to conduct the analysis. Mr Mok criticised a mixed compulsory pension scheme thought to be favoured by China, under which employees would pay into a retirement scheme and others would receive welfare. That would increase the gap between rich and poor in Hong Kong - currently the worst in the region - and send employee contributions rocketing, he said. In China itself, contributions to a central provident fund for workers had jumped to 18 per cent of salaries, he said. The forum brought together academics and government officials to discuss social policy issues in the health care, social welfare and housing sectors. Mr Mok, despite being a supporter of the Government's planned old age pension scheme, said there had been ''an underlying and genuine concern'' about problems if falling numbers of workers had to support a growing elderly population. Such problems have plagued pension schemes in the West, leading to moves away from government-run schemes to private insurance and savings arrangements. Mr Mok said the criticisms from foreign scholars had missed two main points: that the proposed scheme would involve only one tier of payment, unlike, for instance, the British system which had two government tiers, and private company schemes which pulled employee contributions from the state pension; and that it would pay only 30 per cent of a pensioner's median income, compared with a typical 50 per cent elsewhere. Under the Hong Kong plan, everyone aged over 65 would receive $2,300 a month at current prices through a recommended 1.5 per cent of income each from employees and employers, and a one-off $10 billion grant from the Government. Mr Mok said analysis of the worst case should consider: An average annual growth rate of assessable income after 1996 of one per cent, compared with the Wyatt assessment of a rise in wages over inflation after 2001 of two per cent; An average annual fertility rate after 2016 of 1.6 per cent (Wyatt figure, 2.1 per cent after 2021); Average annual population increase after 1996 of 0.5 per cent, which allows just for the mainland migrant quota of 36,000 (Wyatt, average yearly increase in age group around 30, one per cent); Average annual unemployment rate after 1996 of six per cent, taken from the Western experience (Wyatt, two per cent); Pension index-linked with median income (Wyatt, index-linked with inflation). Support for the elderly was a priority item, with several speakers discussing their housing and social needs. Salvation Army senior administrator Victoria Kwok Yuen Wai-yee appealed for the community to change its priorities towards the elderly. Although the percentage of older people was increasing, that of children was falling, leaving the age dependency ratio overall very healthy, she said. ''Chinese elderly people have been very contributive. How many of us know an older person at home now looking after the young?'' she said. ''We are entering our population ageing process as our economy is thriving. Our society can afford to (improve facilities for elderly), but the question is, are we willing to do it? ''Our long-term strategy must be for them to play a contributive, active role,'' she said.